California · crop watch
California peach crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 465.0 thousand tons, down 12.6% from last year's final of 532.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California peach; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
532
thousand tons, 2025 final
−3.3% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
California peach forecast falls below last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts California's peach crop at 465 thousand tons, down 12.6% from last year's final total of 532 thousand tons and also below the 517 thousand tons finished two years ago. The current number already sits 3.1% under the season's first forecast, a move that runs against the usual pattern: first-to-final revisions have historically added about 3.7%, meaning California peach crops tend to finish larger than initially called, not smaller. With the size trending down twice over, the next USDA update will show whether the crop holds near 465 thousand tons or slips further.
Forecast reliability
±5.0%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 480.0 May | 465.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 550.0 May | 520.0 August | 532.0 | −3.3% | $636M | 75.1% |
| 2024 | 510.0 May | 530.0 August | 517.0 | +1.4% | $572M | 74.5% |
| 2023 | 480.0 May | 445.0 August | 480.0 | 0.0% | $462M | 81.4% |
| 2022 | 440.0 May | 430.0 August | 493.0 | +12.0% | $434M | 76.2% |
| 2021 | 480.0 May | 510.0 August | 521.0 | +8.5% | $393M | 74.2% |
| 2020 | 520.0 May | 490.0 August | 514.0 | −1.2% | $384M | 77.8% |
| 2019 | 480.0 May | 510.0 August | 509.0 | +6.0% | $322M | 74.1% |
| 2018 | 495.0 May | 510.0 August | 492.0 | −0.6% | $321M | 74.6% |
| 2017 | — | — | 553.0 | — | $386M | 78.9% |
| 2016 | — | — | 569.0 | — | $350M | 71.8% |
| 2015 | — | — | 607.6 | — | $340M | 71.9% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.