Michigan · crop watch
Michigan peach crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 8.5 thousand tons, down 30.3% from last year's final of 12.2.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Michigan peach; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
12.2
thousand tons, 2025 final
+43.5% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Michigan peach forecast down 30% from last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts Michigan's peach crop at 8.5 thousand tons, down 30.3% from last year's final of 12.2 thousand tons and also below the 10.4 thousand tons produced two years ago. This is a first-of-season number, and Michigan's early peach forecasts have typically finished 16.1% larger than the initial call, so the final tally could come in above this figure. The next USDA update will show whether that pattern holds this season.
Forecast reliability
±17.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 8.5 August | 12.2 | +43.5% | $24M | 1.7% |
| 2024 | 7.5 August | 10.4 | +38.0% | $16M | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 11.0 August | 11.3 | +2.3% | $19M | 1.9% |
| 2022 | 12.0 August | 11.5 | −4.2% | $20M | 1.8% |
| 2021 | 8.0 August | 8.1 | +0.6% | $11M | 1.1% |
| 2020 | 5.5 August | 5.8 | +4.5% | $9M | 0.9% |
| 2019 | 6.0 August | 4.6 | −23.3% | $5M | 0.7% |
| 2018 | 9.9 August | 11.5 | +16.5% | $12M | 1.7% |
| 2017 | — | 9.6 | — | $11M | 1.4% |
| 2016 | — | 11.0 | — | $10M | 1.4% |
| 2015 | — | 7.2 | — | $6M | 0.8% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.