Arizona · crop watch
Arizona tangerine crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2015 crop at 9.0 thousand tons, up 12.5% from last year's final of 8.0.
July 2015 forecast
2015 USDA forecast
9.0thousand tons
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Arizona tangerine; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
Forecast reliability
±11.1%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
First forecastFinalFinal pending
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 9.0 October | 9.0 July | 7.0 | −22.2% | — |
| 2014 | 8.0 November | 8.0 July | 8.0 | 0.0% | — |
| 2013 | — | — | 8.0 | — | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.