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California · crop watch

California tangerine crop

USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 1,240.0 thousand tons, up 2.0% from last year's final of 1,216.0.

July 2026 forecast

2026 USDA forecast

1,240thousand tons

USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California tangerine; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.

▲

1,216

thousand tons, 2025 final

+21.6% against that season's first forecast.

Forecast reliability

±19.8%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

California tangerine crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500thousand tons2015: Oct forecast 640.0 thousand tons · final 740.0 thousand tons (+15.6%)+15.6%20152016: Oct forecast 760.0 thousand tons · final 864.0 thousand tons (+13.7%)+13.7%20162017: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 956.0 thousand tons (+3.9%)+3.9%20172018: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 780.0 thousand tons (-15.2%)−15.2%20182019: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 1,060.0 thousand tons (+15.2%)+15.2%20192020: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 896.0 thousand tons (-2.6%)−2.6%20202021: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 1,152.0 thousand tons (+25.2%)+25.2%20212022: Oct forecast 840.0 thousand tons · final 700.0 thousand tons (-16.7%)−16.7%20222023: Oct forecast 800.0 thousand tons · final 940.0 thousand tons (+17.5%)+17.5%20232024: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 1,088.0 thousand tons (+18.3%)+18.3%20242025: Oct forecast 1,000.0 thousand tons · final 1,216.0 thousand tons (+21.6%)+21.6%20252026: Jan forecast 1,080.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)Latest forecastFinalRevisionShare of US
20261,080.0 January1,240.0 Julypending——
20251,000.0 October1,120.0 July1,216.0+21.6%—
2024920.0 October960.0 July1,088.0+18.3%—
2023800.0 October880.0 July940.0+17.5%—
2022840.0 October800.0 July700.0−16.7%—
2021920.0 October960.0 July1,152.0+25.2%—
2020920.0 October840.0 July896.0−2.6%—
2019920.0 October840.0 July1,060.0+15.2%—
2018920.0 October800.0 July780.0−15.2%—
2017920.0 October960.0 July956.0+3.9%—
2016760.0 October880.0 July864.0+13.7%—
2015640.0 October640.0 July740.0+15.6%—

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

California tangerine crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500thousand tons2018: fresh 600.0, processing 180.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 77% fresh20182019: fresh 732.0, processing 328.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 69% fresh20192020: fresh 696.0, processing 200.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 78% fresh20202021: fresh 772.0, processing 380.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 67% fresh20212022: fresh 500.0, processing 200.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 71% fresh20222023: fresh 648.0, processing 292.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 69% fresh20232024: fresh 724.0, processing 364.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 67% fresh20242025: fresh 792.0, processing 424.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 65% fresh20252026: fresh 880.0, processing 360.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 71% fresh2026
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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