Florida · crop watch
Florida tangerine crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 22.0 thousand tons, up 15.8% from last year's final of 19.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Florida tangerine; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
19.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
0.0% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±15.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.0 January | 22.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 19.0 October | 19.0 July | 19.0 | 0.0% | — |
| 2024 | 24.0 October | 21.0 July | 21.0 | −12.5% | — |
| 2023 | 33.0 October | 23.0 July | 23.0 | −30.3% | — |
| 2022 | 43.0 October | 36.0 July | 36.0 | −16.3% | — |
| 2021 | 52.0 October | 42.0 July | 42.0 | −19.2% | — |
| 2020 | 50.0 October | 48.0 July | 48.0 | −4.0% | — |
| 2019 | 57.0 October | 47.0 July | 47.0 | −17.5% | — |
| 2018 | 43.0 December | 36.0 July | 36.0 | −16.3% | — |
| 2017 | 77.0 October | 77.0 July | 77.0 | 0.0% | — |
| 2016 | 83.0 October | 68.0 July | 67.0 | −19.3% | — |
| 2015 | 133.0 October | 109.0 July | 108.0 | −18.8% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.