California · crop watch
California grapefruit crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 172.0 thousand tons, level with last year's final.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California grapefruit; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
176
thousand tons, 2026 final
+2.3% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±6.2%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 172.0 January | 172.0 July | 176.0 | +2.3% | — |
| 2025 | 168.0 October | 172.0 July | 172.0 | +2.4% | — |
| 2024 | 140.0 October | 168.0 July | 156.0 | +11.4% | — |
| 2023 | 164.0 October | 168.0 July | 180.0 | +9.8% | — |
| 2022 | 156.0 October | 160.0 July | 164.0 | +5.1% | — |
| 2021 | 152.0 October | 176.0 July | 168.0 | +10.5% | — |
| 2020 | 168.0 October | 152.0 July | 188.0 | +11.9% | — |
| 2019 | 156.0 October | 180.0 July | 168.0 | +7.7% | — |
| 2018 | 168.0 October | 160.0 July | 152.0 | −9.5% | — |
| 2017 | 160.0 October | 160.0 July | 176.0 | +10.0% | — |
| 2016 | 140.0 October | 156.0 July | 152.0 | +8.6% | — |
| 2015 | 160.0 October | 152.0 July | 172.0 | +7.5% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.