Florida · crop watch
Florida grapefruit crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 57.0 thousand tons, up 3.6% from last year's final of 55.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Florida grapefruit; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
55.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
−8.3% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±9.0%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.0 January | 57.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 60.0 October | 55.0 July | 55.0 | −8.3% | — |
| 2024 | 81.0 October | 76.0 July | 76.0 | −6.2% | — |
| 2023 | 85.0 October | 77.0 July | 77.0 | −9.4% | — |
| 2022 | 162.0 October | 142.0 July | 142.0 | −12.3% | — |
| 2021 | 191.0 October | 174.0 July | 174.0 | −8.9% | — |
| 2020 | 196.0 October | 207.0 July | 206.0 | +5.1% | — |
| 2019 | 285.0 October | 192.0 July | 191.0 | −33.0% | — |
| 2018 | 208.0 October | 165.0 July | 165.0 | −20.7% | — |
| 2017 | 408.0 October | 332.0 July | 330.0 | −19.1% | — |
| 2016 | 523.0 October | 461.0 July | 459.0 | −12.2% | — |
| 2015 | 638.0 October | 550.0 July | 548.0 | −14.1% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.