Texas · crop watch
Texas grapefruit crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 84.0 thousand tons, up 5.0% from last year's final of 80.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Texas grapefruit; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
80.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
+5.3% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±24.6%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.0 January | 84.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 76.0 October | 80.0 July | 80.0 | +5.3% | — |
| 2024 | 88.0 October | 96.0 July | 96.0 | +9.1% | — |
| 2023 | 80.0 October | 89.0 July | 90.0 | +12.5% | — |
| 2022 | 124.0 October | 68.0 July | 68.0 | −45.2% | — |
| 2021 | 196.0 October | 96.0 July | 96.0 | −51.0% | — |
| 2020 | 228.0 October | 176.0 July | 176.0 | −22.8% | — |
| 2019 | 248.0 October | 244.0 July | 244.0 | −1.6% | — |
| 2018 | 212.0 October | 192.0 July | 192.0 | −9.4% | — |
| 2017 | 188.0 October | 192.0 July | 192.0 | +2.1% | — |
| 2016 | 160.0 October | 193.0 July | 192.0 | +20.0% | — |
| 2015 | 230.0 October | 224.0 July | 170.0 | −26.1% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.