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California · crop watch

California orange crop

USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 1,980.0 thousand tons, up 15.7% from last year's final of 1,712.0.

July 2026 forecast

2026 USDA forecast

1,980thousand tons

USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California orange; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.

▼

1,712

thousand tons, 2025 final

−10.3% against that season's first forecast.

Forecast reliability

±6.1%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

California orange crop: USDA first forecast vs final01,0002,0003,000thousand tons2015: Oct forecast 2,020.0 thousand tons · final 1,944.0 thousand tons (-3.8%)−3.8%20152016: Oct forecast 2,100.0 thousand tons · final 2,340.0 thousand tons (+11.4%)+11.4%20162017: Oct forecast 2,020.0 thousand tons · final 1,932.0 thousand tons (-4.4%)−4.4%20172018: Oct forecast 1,840.0 thousand tons · final 1,796.0 thousand tons (-2.4%)−2.4%20182019: Oct forecast 1,960.0 thousand tons · final 2,088.0 thousand tons (+6.5%)+6.5%20192020: Oct forecast 1,880.0 thousand tons · final 2,164.0 thousand tons (+15.1%)+15.1%20202021: Oct forecast 2,020.0 thousand tons · final 1,960.0 thousand tons (-3.0%)−3.0%20212022: Oct forecast 1,740.0 thousand tons · final 1,564.0 thousand tons (-10.1%)−10.1%20222023: Oct forecast 1,884.0 thousand tons · final 1,784.0 thousand tons (-5.3%)−5.3%20232024: Oct forecast 1,780.0 thousand tons · final 1,816.0 thousand tons (+2.0%)+2.0%20242025: Oct forecast 1,908.0 thousand tons · final 1,712.0 thousand tons (-10.3%)−10.3%20252026: Jan forecast 1,820.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)Latest forecastFinalRevisionShare of US
20261,820.0 January1,980.0 Julypending——
20251,908.0 October1,960.0 July1,712.0−10.3%—
20241,780.0 October1,900.0 July1,816.0+2.0%—
20231,884.0 October1,760.0 July1,784.0−5.3%—
20221,740.0 October1,960.0 July1,564.0−10.1%—
20212,020.0 October2,180.0 July1,960.0−3.0%—
20201,880.0 October2,040.0 July2,164.0+15.1%—
20191,960.0 October2,000.0 July2,088.0+6.5%—
20181,840.0 October1,760.0 July1,796.0−2.4%—
20172,020.0 October1,920.0 July1,932.0−4.4%—
20162,100.0 October2,180.0 July2,340.0+11.4%—
20152,020.0 October1,960.0 July1,944.0−3.8%—

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

California orange crop: fresh market vs processing01,0002,0003,000thousand tons2018: fresh 1,472.0, processing 296.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 83% fresh20182019: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons20192020: fresh 1,704.0, processing 460.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 79% fresh20202021: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons20212022: fresh 1,276.0, processing 288.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 82% fresh20222023: fresh 1,352.0, processing 432.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 76% fresh20232024: fresh 1,166.0, processing 650.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 64% fresh20242025: fresh 1,294.0, processing 418.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 76% fresh20252026: fresh 1,288.0, processing 692.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 65% fresh2026
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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