Texas · crop watch
Texas orange crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 47.0 thousand tons, up 27.0% from last year's final of 37.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Texas orange; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
37.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
+2.8% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±29.4%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.0 January | 47.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 36.0 October | 37.0 July | 37.0 | +2.8% | — |
| 2024 | 34.0 October | 50.0 July | 50.0 | +47.1% | — |
| 2023 | 49.0 October | 48.0 July | 48.0 | −2.0% | — |
| 2022 | 23.0 October | 8.0 July | 8.0 | −65.2% | — |
| 2021 | 64.0 October | 45.0 July | 45.0 | −29.7% | — |
| 2020 | 115.0 October | 57.0 July | 57.0 | −50.4% | — |
| 2019 | 103.0 October | 106.0 July | 106.0 | +2.9% | — |
| 2018 | 70.0 October | 80.0 July | 80.0 | +14.3% | — |
| 2017 | 58.0 October | 58.0 July | 58.0 | 0.0% | — |
| 2016 | 72.0 October | 72.0 July | 71.0 | −1.4% | — |
| 2015 | 84.0 October | 72.0 July | 62.0 | −26.2% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.