Florida · crop watch
Florida orange crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 582.0 thousand tons, up 5.2% from last year's final of 553.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Florida orange; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
583
thousand tons, 2026 final
+7.8% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±18.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 541.0 January | 582.0 July | 583.0 | +7.8% | — |
| 2025 | 675.0 October | 547.0 July | 553.0 | −18.1% | — |
| 2024 | 923.0 October | 808.0 July | 813.0 | −11.9% | — |
| 2023 | 1,260.0 October | 714.0 July | 712.0 | −43.5% | — |
| 2022 | 2,115.0 October | 1,843.0 July | 1,854.0 | −12.3% | — |
| 2021 | 2,565.0 October | 2,377.0 July | 2,383.0 | −7.1% | — |
| 2020 | 3,330.0 October | 3,044.0 July | 3,033.0 | −8.9% | — |
| 2019 | 3,555.0 October | 3,222.0 July | 3,233.0 | −9.1% | — |
| 2018 | 2,430.0 October | 2,023.0 July | 2,028.0 | −16.5% | — |
| 2017 | 3,150.0 October | 3,092.0 July | 3,098.0 | −1.7% | — |
| 2016 | 3,600.0 October | 3,668.0 July | 3,677.0 | +2.1% | — |
| 2015 | 4,860.0 October | 4,352.0 July | 4,363.0 | −10.2% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.