California · crop watch
California pear crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 120.0 thousand tons, down 23.1% from last year's final of 156.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California pear; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
156
thousand tons, 2025 final
+15.6% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
California pear crop forecast drops 23% from last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts the California pear crop at 120 thousand tons, down 23.1% from last year's final of 156 thousand tons and also below the 135.5 thousand tons produced two years ago. Historically, California pear forecasts have finished slightly larger than the initial estimate, with past revisions averaging 1.9% above the first call, so the final number has room to land a bit higher than this figure. Buyers will get a clearer read as USDA issues later updates through the season.
Forecast reliability
±5.0%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 120.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 135.0 August | 156.0 | +15.6% | $78M | 20.4% |
| 2024 | 135.0 August | 135.5 | +0.4% | $87M | 24.6% |
| 2023 | 165.0 August | 162.5 | −1.5% | $118M | 23.4% |
| 2022 | 150.0 August | 152.0 | +1.3% | $97M | 23.5% |
| 2021 | 160.0 August | 150.0 | −6.3% | $84M | 22.5% |
| 2020 | 160.0 August | 122.0 | −23.8% | $72M | 18.1% |
| 2019 | 185.0 August | 168.0 | −9.2% | $63M | 23.2% |
| 2018 | 159.3 August | 154.0 | −3.3% | $74M | 19.3% |
| 2017 | — | 195.0 | — | $96M | 26.4% |
| 2016 | — | 175.0 | — | $96M | 23.7% |
| 2015 | — | 198.0 | — | $94M | 24.2% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.