Oregon · crop watch
Oregon pear crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 210.0 thousand tons, down 22.8% from last year's final of 272.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Oregon pear; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
272
thousand tons, 2025 final
+29.5% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Oregon pear forecast falls 22.8% from last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts the Oregon pear crop at 210 thousand tons, down 22.8% from last year's final total of 272 thousand tons. The figure sits above the 2024 final of 197.5 thousand tons. Past forecasts in this series have typically finished 6.9% larger than the initial call, so the final number could land above today's estimate. The next USDA update will show whether that historical tendency toward upward revision holds for this year's crop.
Forecast reliability
±14.6%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 210.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 210.0 August | 272.0 | +29.5% | $129M | 35.6% |
| 2024 | 200.0 August | 197.5 | −1.3% | $122M | 35.8% |
| 2023 | 190.0 August | 236.0 | +24.2% | $117M | 34.0% |
| 2022 | 240.0 August | 207.0 | −13.8% | $95M | 31.9% |
| 2021 | 230.0 August | 220.0 | −4.3% | $111M | 33.0% |
| 2020 | 250.0 August | 222.0 | −11.2% | $103M | 32.9% |
| 2019 | 260.0 August | 232.0 | −10.8% | $107M | 32.0% |
| 2018 | 241.9 August | 253.0 | +4.6% | $145M | 31.7% |
| 2017 | — | 226.1 | — | $177M | 30.7% |
| 2016 | — | 214.9 | — | $154M | 29.1% |
| 2015 | — | 228.0 | — | $152M | 27.9% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.