Washington · crop watch
Washington pear crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 320.0 thousand tons, down 4.5% from last year's final of 335.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Washington pear; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
335
thousand tons, 2025 final
+19.6% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Washington pear forecast down 4.5% from last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts the Washington pear crop at 320 thousand tons, down 4.5% from last year's final total of 335 thousand tons. That final figure was well above the 218 thousand tons produced two years earlier, so the current forecast still sits above that mark even with the year-over-year decline. Historically, Washington's first pear forecast has run light: past revisions from first estimate to final tally have averaged 8.3% larger, meaning the finished crop has typically come in above the initial call. Whether that pattern holds will show up in USDA's next scheduled update as harvest progresses.
Forecast reliability
±9.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 320.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 280.0 August | 335.0 | +19.6% | $141M | 43.9% |
| 2024 | 185.0 August | 218.0 | +17.8% | $122M | 39.6% |
| 2023 | 290.0 August | 295.0 | +1.7% | $145M | 42.5% |
| 2022 | 300.0 August | 289.0 | −3.7% | $162M | 44.6% |
| 2021 | 280.0 August | 296.0 | +5.7% | $158M | 44.4% |
| 2020 | 390.0 August | 331.0 | −15.1% | $168M | 49.0% |
| 2019 | 360.0 August | 324.0 | −10.0% | $142M | 44.8% |
| 2018 | 338.0 August | 390.0 | +15.4% | $206M | 48.9% |
| 2017 | — | 316.4 | — | $246M | 42.9% |
| 2016 | — | 348.9 | — | $236M | 47.2% |
| 2015 | — | 380.0 | — | $240M | 46.5% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.