Crop watch
Pears by state
7 states report weekly pear condition ratings to USDA; the latest week ends Sep 27. 13 states have USDA production forecasts or finals.
2026 US crop forecast
USDA's August estimate, down 14.8% from last year's final crop.
85%
Connecticut, best rated
Good or excellent this week.
34%
New York, lowest rated
Good or excellent this week.
Analysis
Week ending Sep 27
US pear crop forecast drops 14.8% for 2026
USDA's August 2026 forecast put the U.S. pear crop at 650 thousand tons, down 14.8% from last year. The decline is concentrated in the West: Washington growers are expected to produce 320 thousand tons, down from 335 thousand tons in 2025; Oregon's forecast fell to 210 thousand tons from 272 thousand tons; and California's fell to 120 thousand tons from 156 thousand tons. Eastern acreage remains a smaller share of the crop. New York reported 46% of its pear crop harvested with 34% rated good to excellent. Watch for USDA's next production report to confirm whether the western declines hold through harvest.
Reporting states
7
States filing weekly pear condition ratings with USDA this season. The rest publish annual estimates only.
Condition map
Where the crop stands
Good plus excellent share for the latest reporting week. Select a state to open its page.
Against the average
Good to excellent by state
Bar is this week's good plus excellent share; the tick marks that state's five-year average for the same week. Bars turn amber more than five points below average.
Season shape
Every reporting state, this season
Good plus excellent through the 2026 season. The dashed line is each state's own five-year average.
producewire.net
All states
Pears at a glance
Every state USDA reports, with the latest weekly rating and its most recent production numbers.
| State | Good+excellent | vs 5-yr avg | Harvested | Latest forecast (thousand tons) | Last final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 85% | — | 90% | — | — |
| Massachusetts | 80% | — | 95% | — | — |
| Maine | 75% | — | 70% | — | — |
| Rhode Island | 75% | — | 90% | — | — |
| Vermont | 75% | — | 70% | — | — |
| New Hampshire | 50% | — | 70% | — | — |
| New York | 34% | — | 46% | — | 6.5 2015 |
| Washington | — | — | — | 320.0 2026 | 335.0 2025 |
| Oregon | — | — | — | 210.0 2026 | 272.0 2025 |
| California | — | — | — | 120.0 2026 | 156.0 2025 |
| Michigan | — | — | — | — | 2.1 2015 |
| Pennsylvania | — | — | — | — | 2.0 2015 |
| Other states | — | — | — | 0.0 2024 | 0.0 2024 |
Dashes mean USDA does not publish that series for the state. Weekly ratings run April through November.
National record
US pear crop: forecast vs final
The national crop's first forecast against the final estimate, by year.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 650.0 August | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 625.0 August | 763.0 | +22.1% | $348M |
| 2024 | 520.0 August | 551.0 | +6.0% | $331M |
| 2023 | 645.0 August | 693.5 | +7.5% | $380M |
| 2022 | 690.0 August | 648.0 | −6.1% | $354M |
| 2021 | 670.0 August | 666.0 | −0.6% | $353M |
| 2020 | 800.0 August | 675.0 | −15.6% | $343M |
| 2019 | 805.0 August | 724.0 | −10.1% | $313M |
| 2018 | 739.2 August | 797.0 | +7.8% | $425M |
| 2017 | — | 737.5 | — | $519M |
| 2016 | — | 738.8 | — | $486M |
| 2015 | — | 816.5 | — | $494M |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.