Arizona · crop watch
Arizona lemon crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 29.0 thousand tons, down 35.6% from last year's final of 45.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Arizona lemon; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
45.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
+25.0% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±25.9%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.0 January | 29.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 36.0 October | 45.0 July | 45.0 | +25.0% | — |
| 2024 | 60.0 October | 38.0 July | 38.0 | −36.7% | — |
| 2023 | 46.0 October | 56.0 July | 56.0 | +21.7% | — |
| 2022 | 52.0 October | 52.0 July | 50.0 | −3.8% | — |
| 2021 | 52.0 October | 60.0 July | 30.0 | −42.3% | — |
| 2020 | 56.0 October | 76.0 July | 72.0 | +28.6% | — |
| 2019 | 56.0 October | 56.0 July | 54.0 | −3.6% | — |
| 2018 | 64.0 October | 52.0 July | 40.0 | −37.5% | — |
| 2017 | 72.0 October | 66.0 July | 66.0 | −8.3% | — |
| 2016 | 64.0 October | 62.0 July | 70.0 | +9.4% | — |
| 2015 | 80.0 October | 80.0 July | 80.0 | 0.0% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.