Florida · crop watch
Florida lemon crop
USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 41.0 thousand tons, up 36.7% from last year's final of 30.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Florida lemon; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
30.0
thousand tons, 2025 final
+30.4% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±30.4%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 1 completed season.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Latest forecast | Final | Revision | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.0 January | 41.0 July | pending | — | — |
| 2025 | 23.0 October | 30.0 July | 30.0 | +30.4% | — |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.