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California · crop watch

California lemon crop

USDA's July forecast puts the 2026 crop at 1,040.0 thousand tons, down 1.5% from last year's final of 1,056.0.

July 2026 forecast

2026 USDA forecast

1,040thousand tons

USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California lemon; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.

▲

1,056

thousand tons, 2025 final

+1.5% against that season's first forecast.

Forecast reliability

±8.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

California lemon crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500thousand tons2015: Oct forecast 760.0 thousand tons · final 824.0 thousand tons (+8.4%)+8.4%20152016: Oct forecast 780.0 thousand tons · final 836.0 thousand tons (+7.2%)+7.2%20162017: Oct forecast 840.0 thousand tons · final 820.0 thousand tons (-2.4%)−2.4%20172018: Oct forecast 840.0 thousand tons · final 848.0 thousand tons (+1.0%)+1.0%20182019: Oct forecast 800.0 thousand tons · final 948.0 thousand tons (+18.5%)+18.5%20192020: Oct forecast 800.0 thousand tons · final 1,012.0 thousand tons (+26.5%)+26.5%20202021: Oct forecast 880.0 thousand tons · final 856.0 thousand tons (-2.7%)−2.7%20212022: Oct forecast 840.0 thousand tons · final 1,008.0 thousand tons (+20.0%)+20.0%20222023: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 1,032.0 thousand tons (+12.2%)+12.2%20232024: Oct forecast 920.0 thousand tons · final 980.0 thousand tons (+6.5%)+6.5%20242025: Oct forecast 1,040.0 thousand tons · final 1,056.0 thousand tons (+1.5%)+1.5%20252026: Jan forecast 1,000.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)Latest forecastFinalRevisionShare of US
20261,000.0 January1,040.0 Julypending——
20251,040.0 October1,080.0 July1,056.0+1.5%—
2024920.0 October1,040.0 July980.0+6.5%—
2023920.0 October800.0 July1,032.0+12.2%—
2022840.0 October920.0 July1,008.0+20.0%—
2021880.0 October860.0 July856.0−2.7%—
2020800.0 October840.0 July1,012.0+26.5%—
2019800.0 October840.0 July948.0+18.5%—
2018840.0 October820.0 July848.0+1.0%—
2017840.0 October760.0 July820.0−2.4%—
2016780.0 October872.0 July836.0+7.2%—
2015760.0 October800.0 July824.0+8.4%—

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

California lemon crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500thousand tons2018: fresh 648.0, processing 200.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 76% fresh20182019: fresh 700.0, processing 248.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 74% fresh20192020: fresh 700.0, processing 312.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 69% fresh20202021: fresh 688.0, processing 168.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 80% fresh20212022: fresh 652.0, processing 356.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 65% fresh20222023: fresh 660.0, processing 372.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 64% fresh20232024: fresh 720.0, processing 260.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 73% fresh20242025: fresh 836.0, processing 220.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 79% fresh20252026: fresh 828.0, processing 212.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 80% fresh2026
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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