Oregon · crop watch
Oregon cranberry crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 560.0 thousand barrels, up 5.9% from last year's final of 529.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Oregon cranberry; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
529
thousand barrels, 2025 final
−5.5% against that season's first forecast.
Forecast reliability
±13.8%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand barrels) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 560.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 560.0 August | 529.0 | −5.5% | $17M | 7.0% |
| 2024 | 560.0 August | 600.0 | +7.1% | $22M | 6.9% |
| 2023 | 470.0 August | 550.0 | +17.0% | $24M | 6.8% |
| 2022 | 550.0 August | 417.0 | −24.2% | $17M | 5.2% |
| 2021 | 610.0 August | 519.0 | −14.9% | $19M | 7.6% |
| 2020 | 530.0 August | 582.0 | +9.8% | $21M | 7.4% |
| 2019 | 570.0 August | 558.0 | −2.1% | $17M | 7.1% |
| 2018 | 515.0 August | 579.0 | +12.4% | $15M | 6.5% |
| 2017 | — | 489.7 | — | $13M | 5.8% |
| 2016 | — | 401.0 | — | $10M | 4.2% |
| 2015 | — | 562.0 | — | $15M | 6.6% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.