California · crop watch
California grape crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 4,650.0 thousand tons, level with last year's final.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California grape; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
4,670
thousand tons, 2025 final
−6.2% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
California grape forecast slips slightly below last year
California's grape crop for 2026, forecast at 4,650 thousand tons in the August release, would run 0.4% below last year's final total of 4,670 thousand tons and well under the 4,865 thousand tons produced two years ago. Based on how these forecasts have historically played out, the crop has typically finished about 7% smaller than its first estimate, so the final number could land below this initial figure. For now, the read is a crop essentially flat with last season, continuing a two-year pattern of gradual decline rather than a sharp swing in either direction.
Forecast reliability
±7.0%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4,650.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 4,980.0 August | 4,670.0 | −6.2% | $5,213M | 89.2% |
| 2024 | 5,800.0 August | 4,865.0 | −16.1% | $5,586M | 89.9% |
| 2023 | 5,920.0 August | 5,560.0 | −6.1% | $6,524M | 94.2% |
| 2022 | 5,600.0 August | 5,550.0 | −0.9% | $5,601M | 93.1% |
| 2021 | 6,100.0 August | 5,740.0 | −5.9% | $5,209M | 95.1% |
| 2020 | 6,750.0 August | 5,715.0 | −15.3% | $4,489M | 94.6% |
| 2019 | 7,050.0 August | 6,570.0 | −6.8% | $5,398M | 94.4% |
| 2018 | 6,750.0 August | 7,130.0 | +5.6% | $6,260M | 93.8% |
| 2017 | — | 6,507.0 | — | $5,848M | 88.1% |
| 2016 | — | 6,752.0 | — | $5,621M | 87.7% |
| 2015 | — | 6,792.0 | — | $5,310M | 89.1% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.