Washington · crop watch
Washington grape crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 255.0 thousand tons, down 1.5% from last year's final of 259.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Washington grape; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
259
thousand tons, 2025 final
−7.5% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Washington grape forecast dips slightly below last year
USDA's first forecast for the 2026 Washington grape crop, released August 2026, puts production at 255 thousand tons, down 1.5% from last year's final total of 259 thousand and well below the 303 thousand tons harvested two years ago. Early-season forecasts for this crop have typically run about 5.7% above the final count, so the number that closes out the season tends to land lower than this initial figure suggests. Buyers will get a clearer read as USDA updates the forecast later in the season.
Forecast reliability
±8.6%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 255.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 280.0 August | 259.0 | −7.5% | $274M | 4.9% |
| 2024 | 305.0 August | 303.0 | −0.7% | $284M | 5.6% |
| 2023 | 365.0 August | 339.5 | −7.0% | $309M | 5.8% |
| 2022 | 385.0 August | 412.5 | +7.1% | $395M | 6.9% |
| 2021 | 370.0 August | 294.0 | −20.5% | $300M | 4.9% |
| 2020 | 430.0 August | 324.5 | −24.5% | $302M | 5.4% |
| 2019 | 450.0 August | 393.0 | −12.7% | $309M | 5.6% |
| 2018 | 455.0 August | 468.0 | +2.9% | $361M | 6.2% |
| 2017 | — | 419.0 | — | $319M | 5.7% |
| 2016 | — | 490.0 | — | $360M | 6.4% |
| 2015 | — | 411.0 | — | $289M | 5.4% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.