California · crop watch
California apple crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 190.0 million lb, up 0.8% from last year's final of 188.5.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California apple; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
189
million lb, 2025 final
+17.8% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
California apple forecast up slightly from last year
California's first 2026 crop forecast, released in August, puts production at 190 million pounds, up 0.8% from last year's final total of 188.5 million pounds. That prior crop was already well above the 163 million pounds harvested two years earlier. Historically, California's first-of-season apple forecasts have finished about 1.4% smaller than the initial call by the time final numbers are tallied, so the August figure could soften somewhat as the season plays out.
Forecast reliability
±19.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million lb) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 190.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 160.0 August | 188.5 | +17.8% | $49M | 1.7% |
| 2024 | 230.0 August | 163.0 | −29.1% | $52M | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 200.0 August | 240.0 | +20.0% | $70M | 2.1% |
| 2022 | 240.0 August | 183.5 | −23.5% | $55M | 1.8% |
| 2021 | 185.0 August | 199.5 | +7.8% | $48M | 2.0% |
| 2020 | 270.0 August | 230.0 | −14.8% | $56M | 2.2% |
| 2019 | 300.0 August | 259.0 | −13.7% | $58M | 2.3% |
| 2018 | 260.0 August | 248.0 | −4.6% | $66M | 2.4% |
| 2017 | — | 230.0 | — | $75M | 2.0% |
| 2016 | — | 255.0 | — | $52M | 2.2% |
| 2015 | — | 201.0 | — | $51M | 2.0% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.