Washington · crop watch
Washington apple crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 7,400.0 million lb, down 1.9% from last year's final of 7,540.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Washington apple; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
7,540
million lb, 2025 final
−5.8% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Washington apple forecast trails last year's crop
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts the Washington apple crop at 7,400 million pounds, down 1.9% from last season's final total of 7,540 million pounds and close to the 7,440 million pounds produced two years ago. Early-season forecasts in this crop have historically run about 1.1% above the final count, so the finished number could land a bit lighter than today's figure. With harvest underway, the next USDA update will show whether the crop is tracking toward that typical downward revision or holding closer to the August estimate.
Forecast reliability
±6.8%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million lb) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,400.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 8,000.0 August | 7,540.0 | −5.8% | $1,885M | 67.9% |
| 2024 | 7,500.0 August | 7,440.0 | −0.8% | $1,895M | 68.2% |
| 2023 | 6,700.0 August | 7,655.0 | +14.3% | $1,822M | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 6,500.0 August | 6,140.0 | −5.5% | $2,068M | 61.6% |
| 2021 | 7,400.0 August | 6,845.0 | −7.5% | $2,008M | 68.0% |
| 2020 | 7,400.0 August | 6,915.0 | −6.6% | $2,095M | 67.1% |
| 2019 | 7,200.0 August | 7,600.0 | +5.6% | $1,959M | 68.6% |
| 2018 | 7,200.0 August | 6,700.0 | −6.9% | $2,141M | 65.4% |
| 2017 | — | 7,500.0 | — | $2,430M | 64.9% |
| 2016 | — | 7,320.0 | — | $2,351M | 63.7% |
| 2015 | — | 5,930.0 | — | $2,319M | 58.7% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.