Oregon · crop watch
Oregon apple crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 160.0 million lb, level with last year's final.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Oregon apple; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
160
million lb, 2025 final
−3.3% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Oregon apple forecast edges above last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts Oregon's apple crop at 160 million pounds, up 0.3% from last year's final total of 159.5 million pounds and well ahead of the 120 million pounds produced two years ago. Oregon's early-season forecasts have historically run high, with the first estimate finishing an average of 8.4% larger than the final count. That pattern makes the August number a starting point rather than a settled figure. The next USDA report will show whether this year's crop tracks closer to the current forecast or follows the usual downward drift.
Forecast reliability
±18.8%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million lb) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 160.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 165.0 August | 159.5 | −3.3% | $47M | 1.4% |
| 2024 | 150.0 August | 120.0 | −20.0% | $28M | 1.1% |
| 2023 | 125.0 August | 157.5 | +26.0% | $37M | 1.4% |
| 2022 | 175.0 August | 130.5 | −25.4% | $39M | 1.3% |
| 2021 | 190.0 August | 153.0 | −19.5% | $49M | 1.5% |
| 2020 | 180.0 August | 175.0 | −2.8% | $39M | 1.7% |
| 2019 | 145.0 August | 150.0 | +3.4% | $39M | 1.4% |
| 2018 | 155.0 August | 170.0 | +9.7% | $55M | 1.7% |
| 2017 | — | 175.2 | — | $39M | 1.5% |
| 2016 | — | 195.4 | — | $60M | 1.7% |
| 2015 | — | 125.4 | — | $44M | 1.2% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.