Michigan · crop watch
Michigan apple crop
USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 1,050.0 million lb, down 1.4% from last year's final of 1,065.0.
2026 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Michigan apple; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
1,065
million lb, 2025 final
−3.2% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, August 2026
Michigan apple forecast slips slightly below last year
USDA's August 2026 forecast puts the Michigan apple crop at 1,050 million pounds, down 1.4% from last year's final of 1,065 million pounds and well below the 1,220 million pounds harvested two years ago. The August number is the first official read on the 2026 crop; USDA's past first forecasts have typically finished 6.9 points larger by the final tally, so this early figure has historically undershot the eventual outturn. The next USDA update will show whether that pattern holds for this season.
Forecast reliability
±9.8%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million lb) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,050.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 1,100.0 August | 1,065.0 | −3.2% | $322M | 9.6% |
| 2024 | 1,200.0 August | 1,220.0 | +1.7% | $365M | 11.2% |
| 2023 | 1,150.0 August | 1,340.0 | +16.5% | $362M | 11.7% |
| 2022 | 1,100.0 August | 1,360.0 | +23.6% | $412M | 13.6% |
| 2021 | 760.0 August | 729.0 | −4.1% | $237M | 7.2% |
| 2020 | 920.0 August | 1,000.0 | +8.7% | $292M | 9.7% |
| 2019 | 1,050.0 August | 1,060.0 | +1.0% | $290M | 9.6% |
| 2018 | 1,175.0 August | 1,035.0 | −11.9% | $285M | 10.1% |
| 2017 | — | 900.0 | — | $272M | 7.8% |
| 2016 | — | 1,275.0 | — | $325M | 11.1% |
| 2015 | — | 995.0 | — | $233M | 9.8% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.