Pennsylvania · crop watch
Pennsylvania apple crop
USDA last rated the 2026 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Aug 23, when 13% was good or excellent, 61 points below the five-year average of 74%, versus 81% at this point last year. Harvest is 95% complete (five-year average 70%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 210.0 million lb, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505.0.
Good to excellent · last reading
61 points below the five-year average for this week, and 81% a year ago.
95%
Harvested
+25 points against the five-year pace of 70%.
210
million lb, 2026 forecast
−58.4% against last year's final crop.
Analysis
Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago
Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average
Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.
This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.
Forecast reliability
±16.4%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Weekly ratings
Crop condition, 2026
Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.
Latest: 13% good or excellent, week ending Aug 23. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.
Field progress
Green tip, 2026
This season against the five-year average pace and last year.
Green tip: 95% as of Apr 19 (5-yr avg 84%).
Field progress
Pink, 2026
This season against the five-year average pace and last year.
Pink: 95% as of May 3 (5-yr avg 65%).
Field progress
Full bloom, 2026
This season against the five-year average pace and last year.
Full bloom: 95% as of May 10 (5-yr avg 49%).
Field progress
Harvested, 2026
This season against the five-year average pace and last year.
Harvested: 95% as of Sep 27 (5-yr avg 70%).
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million lb) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 210.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 430.0 August | 505.0 | +17.4% | $121M | 4.5% |
| 2024 | 510.0 August | 442.0 | −13.3% | $102M | 4.1% |
| 2023 | 440.0 August | 559.0 | +27.0% | $118M | 4.9% |
| 2022 | 460.0 August | 460.0 | 0.0% | $124M | 4.6% |
| 2021 | 460.0 August | 571.0 | +24.1% | $133M | 5.7% |
| 2020 | 420.0 August | 417.0 | −0.7% | $91M | 4.0% |
| 2019 | 500.0 August | 507.0 | +1.4% | $106M | 4.6% |
| 2018 | 504.0 August | 488.0 | −3.2% | $108M | 4.8% |
| 2017 | — | 528.0 | — | $117M | 4.6% |
| 2016 | — | 467.0 | — | $89M | 4.1% |
| 2015 | — | 519.0 | — | $98M | 5.1% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.