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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Sep 11, when 79% was good or excellent, versus 78% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 92%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2022 crop at 460.0 million lb, down 19.4% from last year's final of 571.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 11, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

79%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 11.

▲

95%

Harvested

+3 points against the five-year pace of 92%.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 1%, Good 92%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 77%)Week ending Jun 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 1%, Good 92%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 76%)Week ending Jun 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 1%, Good 95%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 77%)Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 4%, Poor 3%, Fair 1%, Good 91%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 77%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 6%, Poor 5%, Fair 3%, Good 85%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 77%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 6%, Good 85%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 76%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 6%, Poor 8%, Fair 11%, Good 73%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 10%, Good 75%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg —, last year 78%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 5%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 5%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 5%, Poor 5%, Fair 15%, Good 75%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 79%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 6%, Poor 2%, Fair 12%, Good 80%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 19%, Good 80%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 78%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 13%, Good 85%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 78%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 6%, Poor 2%, Fair 13%, Good 79%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year 78%)−15 pts — week ending Jul 17−15 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 14USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Aug 14Harvest beginsJun 5Jun 19Jul 3Jul 17Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28Sep 11
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 79% good or excellent, week ending Sep 11. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple green tip, 20220%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 3: 26% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 10: 56% (5-yr avg —, last year 74%)Green tip, week ending Apr 17: 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Green tip, week ending Apr 24: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Green tip, week ending May 1: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending May 8: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 3Apr 10Apr 17Apr 24May 1May 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of May 8.

Field progress

Pink, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20220%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 3: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 10: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 2%)Pink, week ending Apr 17: 0% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 37%)Pink, week ending Apr 24: 12% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 82%)Pink, week ending May 1: 35% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 93%)Pink, week ending May 8: 65% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 97%)Pink, week ending May 15: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending May 22: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 3Apr 10Apr 17Apr 24May 1May 8May 15May 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 22.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20220%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 24: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year 28%)Full bloom, week ending May 1: 18% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 64%)Full bloom, week ending May 8: 48% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 84%)Full bloom, week ending May 15: 70% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 91%)Full bloom, week ending May 22: 80% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 95%)Full bloom, week ending May 29: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 24May 1May 8May 15May 22May 29
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of May 29.

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 4% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 19% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 26% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 35% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 35%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 45% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 45%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 55% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 62% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 56%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 70% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 61%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 76% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 85% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 76%)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 90% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 95% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Aug 14Aug 28Sep 11Sep 25Oct 9Oct 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 30 (5-yr avg 92%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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