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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Sep 17, when 55% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 87%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2023 crop at 440.0 million lb, down 4.3% from last year's final of 460.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 17, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

55%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 17.

▲

95%

Harvested

+8 points against the five-year pace of 87%.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 4: Very poor 23%, Poor 31%, Fair 23%, Good 23%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 93%)Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 27%, Poor 27%, Fair 23%, Good 23%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 93%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 27%, Poor 27%, Fair 23%, Good 23%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 96%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 27%, Poor 27%, Fair 23%, Good 23%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 92%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 30%, Poor 33%, Fair 22%, Good 15%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 2%, Good 91%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 90%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 2%, Good 91%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 75%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 2%, Good 91%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 83%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 4%, Good 89%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 4%, Good 89%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 23%, Good 70%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 4%, Poor 6%, Fair 25%, Good 65%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 80%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 3%, Poor 7%, Fair 27%, Good 63%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 80%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 4%, Poor 6%, Fair 29%, Good 61%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 85%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 5%, Poor 7%, Fair 30%, Good 58%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 6%, Poor 9%, Fair 30%, Good 55%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg —, last year —)USDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecast−19 pts — week ending Aug 13−19 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 27Harvest beginsJun 4Jun 18Jul 2Jul 16Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 55% good or excellent, week ending Sep 17. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple green tip, 20230%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 2: 39% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 9: 59% (5-yr avg —, last year 52%)Green tip, week ending Apr 16: 86% (5-yr avg —, last year 72%)Green tip, week ending Apr 23: 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Green tip, week ending Apr 30: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 98% as of Apr 30.

Field progress

Pink, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20230%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 2: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 9: 13% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 16: 37% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 23: 57% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 10%)Pink, week ending Apr 30: 75% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 32%)Pink, week ending May 7: 85% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 61%)Pink, week ending May 14: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 82%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 14.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20230%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 30: 6% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 16%)Full bloom, week ending May 7: 18% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 44%)Full bloom, week ending May 14: 30% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 67%)Full bloom, week ending May 21: 72% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 79%)Full bloom, week ending May 28: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 4: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28Jun 4
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jun 4.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 0% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 17%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 15% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 25%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 25% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 40% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 55% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 62% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 61%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 72% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 85% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 90% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 95% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 89%)Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20Sep 3Sep 17Oct 1Oct 15
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 22 (5-yr avg 87%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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