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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Sep 20, when 73% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 100% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2020 crop at 420.0 million lb, down 17.2% from last year's final of 507.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 20, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

73%of the crop

Share of the 2020 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 20.

–

100%

Harvested

As of Nov 22.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 24%, Good 74%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 89%)Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 23%, Good 74%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 92%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 87%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 86%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 84%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 21%, Good 72%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 88%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 22%, Good 71%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 88%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 23%, Good 73%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 23%, Good 73%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 22%, Good 73%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 84%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 73%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 72%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 67%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 23%, Good 73%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 23%, Good 73%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 2Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 16USDA forecastMay 31Jun 21Jul 12Aug 2Aug 23Sep 13
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 73% good or excellent, week ending Sep 20. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Pink, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20200%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 5: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 12: 38% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 19: 86% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 28%)Pink, week ending Apr 26: 89% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 54%)Pink, week ending May 3: 92% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 81%)Pink, week ending May 10: 97% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 93%)Pink, week ending May 17: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Pink, week ending May 24: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Apr 5Apr 12Apr 19Apr 26May 3May 10May 17May 24
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 100% as of May 24.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20200%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 26: 26% (5-yr avg —, last year 27%)Full bloom, week ending May 3: 72% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 70%)Full bloom, week ending May 10: 84% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 87%)Full bloom, week ending May 17: 92% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 90%)Full bloom, week ending May 24: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Full bloom, week ending May 31: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Apr 26May 3May 10May 17May 24May 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 100% as of May 31.

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 0% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 2% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 8% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 17% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 22% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 27% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 32% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 41% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 62%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 50% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 72%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 60% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 79%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 66% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 72% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 88%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 81% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 86% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 92%)Harvested, week ending Nov 1: 90% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Nov 8: 92% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Harvested, week ending Nov 15: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Nov 22: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 19Aug 9Aug 30Sep 20Oct 11Nov 1Nov 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 100% as of Nov 22.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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