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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Aug 31, when 81% was good or excellent, 6 points above the five-year average of 75%, versus 80% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 97% complete (five-year average 63%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2025 crop at 430.0 million lb, down 2.7% from last year's final of 442.0.

Last rated week ending Aug 31, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

81%of the crop

6 points above the five-year average for this week, and 80% a year ago.

▲

97%

Harvested

+34 points against the five-year pace of 63%.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 95%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 94%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 94%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 100%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 95%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 75%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 65%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 65%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 54%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 51%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 80%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 10Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 17USDA forecastJun 15Jun 29Jul 13Jul 27Aug 10Aug 24
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 81% good or excellent, week ending Aug 31. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple green tip, 20250%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 6: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year 48%)Green tip, week ending Apr 13: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 59%)Green tip, week ending Apr 20: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Green tip, week ending Apr 27: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Apr 6Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 97% as of Apr 27.

Field progress

Pink, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20250%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 6: 0% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 13: 5% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 20: 15% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 39%)Pink, week ending Apr 27: 22% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 49%)Pink, week ending May 4: 40% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 71%)Pink, week ending May 11: 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Pink, week ending May 18: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Pink, week ending May 25: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 6Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 25.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20250%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 20: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 27: 0% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 4%)Full bloom, week ending May 4: 10% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 38%)Full bloom, week ending May 11: 30% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 56%)Full bloom, week ending May 18: 50% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 75%)Full bloom, week ending May 25: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 1: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 8: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jun 8.

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 15% (5-yr avg —, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 25% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 35% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 55% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 28%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 70% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 39%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 87% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 90% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 97% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 64%)Jul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 97% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 63%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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