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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Sep 12, when 78% was good or excellent, versus 73% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2021 crop at 460.0 million lb, up 10.3% from last year's final of 417.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 12, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

78%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 12.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Nov 14.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 21%, Good 75%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 74%)Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 22%, Good 76%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 75%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 23%, Good 76%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 73%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 22%, Good 76%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 73%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 22%, Good 76%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 73%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 22%, Good 75%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 73%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 23%, Good 76%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 77%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg —, last year 74%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 77%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 77%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 77%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 21%, Good 77%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 77%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 77%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 72%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 77%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 72%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 77%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 25Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 15USDA forecastMay 30Jun 13Jun 27Jul 11Jul 25Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 78% good or excellent, week ending Sep 12. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple green tip, 20210%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 4: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 11: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 18: 89% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 25: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 95% as of Apr 25.

Field progress

Pink, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20210%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 11: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 34%)Pink, week ending Apr 18: 43% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 79%)Pink, week ending Apr 25: 88% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 89%)Pink, week ending May 2: 94% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 92%)Pink, week ending May 9: 97% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 96%)Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 97% as of May 9 (5-yr avg 82%).

Field progress

Full bloom, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20210%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 18: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 25: 33% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 2: 69% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 65%)Full bloom, week ending May 9: 86% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 82%)Full bloom, week ending May 16: 92% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 91%)Full bloom, week ending May 23: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of May 23.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 2% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 8% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 17% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 22% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 27% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 31% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 36% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 47% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 40%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 52% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 57% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 62% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 72% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 77% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 80%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 85% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 85%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 90% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Nov 7: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Harvested, week ending Nov 14: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29Sep 19Oct 10Oct 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Nov 14.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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