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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania apple crop

USDA last rated the 2024 Pennsylvania apple crop for the week ending Sep 15, when 90% was good or excellent, versus 55% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2024 crop at 510.0 million lb, down 8.8% from last year's final of 559.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 15, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

90%of the crop

Share of the 2024 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 15.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Oct 27.

▼

210

million lb, 2026 forecast

−58.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 23 — 5 weeks ago

Pennsylvania apple crop rated far below average

Pennsylvania's apple crop was rated 13% good to excellent for the week ending August 23, well below the five-year average of 74% and last year's 81% for the same week. The rating held flat from the prior week, but 80% of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest ran ahead of normal, reaching 60% complete by August 30 against a five-year average of 31% and last year's 52%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 210 million pounds, down 58.4% from last year's final of 505 million pounds. Past forecasts have typically finished 11.1% larger than the first estimate.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±16.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania apple crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 88%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 23%)Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 86%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 23%)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 82%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 23%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 6%, Good 85%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 94% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 23%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 6%, Good 84%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 94% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 15%)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 90%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 80%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 70%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 63%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 34%, Good 62%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 37%, Good 52%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 40%, Good 49%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 65%)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 27%, Good 55%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 63%)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 18%, Good 65%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 61%)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 58%)Week ending Sep 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 7%, Good 75%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 55%)−20 pts — week ending Jul 21−20 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 4Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 18USDA forecastJun 2Jun 16Jun 30Jul 14Jul 28Aug 11Aug 25Sep 8
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 90% good or excellent, week ending Sep 15. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple green tip, 20240%50%100%Green tip, week ending Mar 31: 39% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 7: 50% (5-yr avg —, last year 53%)Green tip, week ending Apr 14: 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 78%)Green tip, week ending Apr 21: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Green tip, week ending Apr 28: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Green tip, week ending May 5: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 95% as of May 5.

Field progress

Pink, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple pink, 20240%50%100%Pink, week ending Mar 31: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 7: 0% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 9%)Pink, week ending Apr 14: 0% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 30%)Pink, week ending Apr 21: 45% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 51%)Pink, week ending Apr 28: 50% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 70%)Pink, week ending May 5: 75% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 82%)Pink, week ending May 12: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Pink, week ending May 19: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 19.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple full bloom, 20240%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 21: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 28: 5% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 4%)Full bloom, week ending May 5: 43% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 15%)Full bloom, week ending May 12: 58% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 27%)Full bloom, week ending May 19: 78% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 60%)Full bloom, week ending May 26: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 87%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 2: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jun 2.

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania apple harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 21: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 28: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 4: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 11: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 18: 10% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 25: 15% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 11%)Harvested, week ending Sep 1: 30% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 22%)Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 40% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 50% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 60% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 65% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 75% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 81%)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 80% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 90% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Oct 27: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 21Aug 4Aug 18Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 27.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0200400600million lb2015: no forecast · final 519.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 467.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 528.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 504.0 million lb · final 488.0 million lb (-3.2%)−3.2%20182019: Aug forecast 500.0 million lb · final 507.0 million lb (+1.4%)+1.4%20192020: Aug forecast 420.0 million lb · final 417.0 million lb (-0.7%)−0.7%20202021: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 571.0 million lb (+24.1%)+24.1%20212022: Aug forecast 460.0 million lb · final 460.0 million lb (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Aug forecast 440.0 million lb · final 559.0 million lb (+27.0%)+27.0%20232024: Aug forecast 510.0 million lb · final 442.0 million lb (-13.3%)−13.3%20242025: Aug forecast 430.0 million lb · final 505.0 million lb (+17.4%)+17.4%20252026: Aug forecast 210.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026210.0 Augustpending———
2025430.0 August505.0+17.4%$121M4.5%
2024510.0 August442.0−13.3%$102M4.1%
2023440.0 August559.0+27.0%$118M4.9%
2022460.0 August460.00.0%$124M4.6%
2021460.0 August571.0+24.1%$133M5.7%
2020420.0 August417.0−0.7%$91M4.0%
2019500.0 August507.0+1.4%$106M4.6%
2018504.0 August488.0−3.2%$108M4.8%
2017—528.0—$117M4.6%
2016—467.0—$89M4.1%
2015—519.0—$98M5.1%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania apple crop: fresh market vs processing0200400600million lb2014: fresh 191.0, processing 332.0, not sold 8.0 million lb — 36% fresh20142015: fresh 198.0, processing 317.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 38% fresh20152016: fresh 178.0, processing 286.0, not sold 3.0 million lb — 38% fresh20162017: fresh 236.0, processing 290.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 45% fresh20172018: fresh 233.8, processing 250.3, not sold 3.9 million lb — 48% fresh20182019: fresh 236.3, processing 269.7, not sold 1.0 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 192.2, processing 224.3, not sold 0.5 million lb — 46% fresh20202021: fresh 213.6, processing 356.9, not sold 0.5 million lb — 37% fresh20212022: fresh 214.4, processing 244.3, not sold 1.3 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 246.0, processing 304.7, not sold 8.3 million lb — 44% fresh20232024: fresh 215.3, processing 225.0, not sold 1.7 million lb — 49% fresh20242025: fresh 230.3, processing 272.7, not sold 2.0 million lb — 46% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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