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New Jersey · crop watch

New Jersey peach crop

USDA last rated the 2023 New Jersey peach crop for the week ending Aug 20, when 67% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 96% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2023 crop at 16.0 thousand tons, up 93.9% from last year's final of 8.3.

Last rated week ending Aug 20, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

67%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Aug 20.

–

96%

Harvested

As of Aug 27.

▼

6.0

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−61.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Aug 9 — 7 weeks ago

New Jersey peach forecast falls sharply for 2026

New Jersey's peach crop condition was last rated for the week ending August 9, 2026, when USDA showed no acreage in the good or excellent categories, unchanged from the prior week. Forty-five percent of the crop was rated very poor and 45% poor, with the remaining 10% fair. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 6,000 tons, down 61.5% from last year's final total of 15.6 thousand tons and below the 14.7 thousand tons produced two years earlier. First estimates in this program have typically finished 6.9% smaller than the final number, meaning this crop could end up larger than the initial call. Harvest reached 77% complete by the week ending August 30.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±25.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New Jersey peach crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 5%, Good 90%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 98%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 11%, Fair 32%, Good 57%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 30%, Good 68%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 34%, Good 61%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 26%, Good 65%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 30%, Good 57%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 28%, Good 53%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 2Harvest begins−41 pts — week ending Jul 9−41 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecastJun 25Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 67% good or excellent, week ending Aug 20. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach green tip, 20230%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 9: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 16: 5% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 0%)Green tip, week ending Apr 23: 30% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 86%)Green tip, week ending Apr 30: 50% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending May 7: 75% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending May 14: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of May 14.

Field progress

Pink, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach pink, 20230%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending May 7: 0% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 47%)Pink, week ending May 14: 40% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 89%)Pink, week ending May 21: 65% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending May 28: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 28.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach full bloom, 20230%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 14: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 69%)Full bloom, week ending May 21: 20% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Full bloom, week ending May 28: 65% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Jun 4: 75% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Jun 11: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28Jun 4Jun 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jun 11.

Field progress

Petal fall, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach petal fall, 20230%50%100%Petal fall, week ending May 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending May 14: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending May 21: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 83%)Petal fall, week ending May 28: 25% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 4: 35% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending Jun 11: 60% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending Jun 18: 75% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending Jun 25: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 7May 14May 21May 28Jun 4Jun 11Jun 18Jun 25
This year5-yr avgLast year

Petal fall: 100% as of Jun 25.

Field progress

Fruit set, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach fruit set, 20230%50%100%Fruit set, week ending May 14: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending May 21: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending May 28: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 34%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 4: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 48%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 11: 30% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 18: 55% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 25: 57% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Fruit set, week ending Jul 2: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Fruit set, week ending Jul 9: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending Jul 16: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 14May 28Jun 11Jun 25Jul 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Fruit set: 95% as of Jul 16.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New Jersey peach harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jun 25: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 2: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 9: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 16: 21% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 40% (5-yr avg —, last year 55%)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 59% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 64% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 77% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 96% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jun 25Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Aug 27.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New Jersey peach crop: USDA first forecast vs final010203040thousand tons2015: no forecast · final 20.3 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 18.5 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 24.6 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 32.0 thousand tons · final 20.2 thousand tons (-36.9%)−36.9%20182019: Aug forecast 25.0 thousand tons · final 17.0 thousand tons (-32.0%)−32.0%20192020: Aug forecast 11.5 thousand tons · final 6.4 thousand tons (-44.3%)−44.3%20202021: Aug forecast 19.0 thousand tons · final 12.6 thousand tons (-33.9%)−33.9%20212022: Aug forecast 7.5 thousand tons · final 8.3 thousand tons (+10.0%)+10.0%20222023: Aug forecast 16.0 thousand tons · final 14.2 thousand tons (-11.3%)−11.3%20232024: Aug forecast 11.5 thousand tons · final 14.7 thousand tons (+27.8%)+27.8%20242025: Aug forecast 11.0 thousand tons · final 15.6 thousand tons (+41.8%)+41.8%20252026: Aug forecast 6.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20266.0 Augustpending———
202511.0 August15.6+41.8%$25M2.2%
202411.5 August14.7+27.8%$18M2.1%
202316.0 August14.2−11.3%$29M2.4%
20227.5 August8.3+10.0%$17M1.3%
202119.0 August12.6−33.9%$33M1.8%
202011.5 August6.4−44.3%$18M1.0%
201925.0 August17.0−32.0%$22M2.5%
201832.0 August20.2−36.9%$36M3.1%
2017—24.6—$38M3.5%
2016—18.5—$26M2.3%
2015—20.3—$26M2.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New Jersey peach crop: fresh market vs processing05101520thousand tons2014: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons20142015: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20152016: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20162017: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 0% fresh20172018: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons20182019: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 1.3 thousand tons — 0% fresh20192020: fresh 6.4, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 100% fresh20202021: fresh 12.5, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 100% fresh20212022: fresh 8.3, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 100% fresh20222023: fresh 14.2, processing 0.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 100% fresh20232024: fresh 14.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.7 thousand tons — 95% fresh20242025: fresh 15.6, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 100% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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