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North Carolina · crop watch

North Carolina apple crop

USDA last rated the 2021 North Carolina apple crop for the week ending Sep 12, when 61% was good or excellent, versus 80% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2018 crop at 115.0 million lb, up 10.6% from last year's final of 104.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 12, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

61%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 12.

▲

96%

Harvested

+3 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▲

115

million lb, 2018 forecast

+10.6% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 6 — 3 weeks ago

North Carolina apple crop condition drops sharply

In the week ending September 6, 2026, North Carolina's apple crop was rated 51% good to excellent, down 26 points from the previous week, with 10% rated poor. Harvest reached 56% complete by September 13, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 54% but behind last year's pace of 64% at the same point. A USDA forecast from August 2018 put the crop at 115 million pounds, up 10.6% from last year's final total of 104 million pounds. The next condition report will show whether the decline in quality continues.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Carolina apple crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 82%, Good 18%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 18% (5-yr avg —, last year 98%)Week ending May 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 64%, Good 25%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 26% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending May 30: Very poor 1%, Poor 20%, Fair 46%, Good 30%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 33% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 75%)Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 47%, Good 49%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 50% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 86%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 41%, Good 59%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 88%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 40%, Good 60%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 87%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 38%, Good 62%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 52%, Good 48%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 36%, Good 55%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 35%, Good 55%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 89%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 43%, Good 48%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 35%, Good 62%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 35%, Good 61%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 85%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 15%, Fair 40%, Good 44%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 45% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 8%, Fair 48%, Good 43%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 51%, Good 47%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 75%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 38%, Good 60%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg —, last year 80%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 18Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 15USDA forecast−17 pts — week ending Aug 15−17 ptsMay 16Jun 6Jun 27Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 61% good or excellent, week ending Sep 12. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Carolina apple harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 11: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 1% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 5% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 12% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 18% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 19% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 19%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 24% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 29% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 33%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 44% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 38%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 49% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 46%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 53% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 68% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 58%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 82% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 64%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 86% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 73%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 92% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 93% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 90%)Jul 11Aug 1Aug 22Sep 12Oct 3Oct 24
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 31 (5-yr avg 93%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Carolina apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150200million lb2010: no forecast · final 136.0 million lb20102011: no forecast · final 140.0 million lb20112012: no forecast · final 33.5 million lb20122013: no forecast · final 155.0 million lb20132014: no forecast · final 125.0 million lb20142015: no forecast · final 105.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 114.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 104.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 115.0 million lb · final pending2018
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2018115.0 Augustpending———
2017—104.0—$25M0.9%
2016—114.0—$27M1.0%
2015—105.0—$21M1.0%
2014—125.0—$31M1.1%
2013—155.0—$32M1.5%
2012—33.5—$10M0.4%
2011—140.0—$27M1.5%
2010—136.0—$25M1.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

North Carolina apple crop: fresh market vs processing050100150million lb2010: fresh 56.0, processing 78.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 42% fresh20102011: fresh 59.0, processing 81.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 42% fresh20112012: fresh 16.0, processing 16.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20122013: fresh 75.0, processing 70.0, not sold 4.0 million lb — 50% fresh20132014: fresh 65.0, processing 60.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 52% fresh20142015: fresh 50.0, processing 53.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 48% fresh20152016: fresh 53.0, processing 60.0, not sold 1.0 million lb — 46% fresh20162017: fresh 52.0, processing 50.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 50% fresh2017
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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