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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania peach crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Pennsylvania peach crop for the week ending Aug 22, when 96% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 100% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2021 crop at 21.0 thousand tons, up 49.5% from last year's final of 14.1.

Last rated week ending Aug 22, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

96%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Aug 22.

–

100%

Harvested

As of Oct 3.

▼

3.7

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−82.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Jul 26 — 9 weeks ago

Pennsylvania peach condition ran far below normal

USDA rated Pennsylvania's peach crop for the week ending July 26, the most recent reading published, at 20% good to excellent, up 6 points from the prior week but well under the 56% five-year average and last year's 70% for the same week. Forty-three percent of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest reached 95% by the week ending August 16, ahead of last year's 79% pace. USDA's August forecast put production at 3.7 thousand tons, down 82% from last year's 20.5 thousand-ton final. Pennsylvania peach forecasts have typically finished 15.9% above the first estimate of the season, so the final tally has room to move up from this figure.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±19.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania peach crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 14%, Good 86%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 14%, Good 86%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 15%, Good 85%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 14%, Good 86%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 14%, Good 86%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 70%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 14%, Good 86%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 70%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 16%, Good 84%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 90%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 90%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 91%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 90%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 71%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 91%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg —, last year 57%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 87%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 11Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 15USDA forecastMay 30Jun 13Jun 27Jul 11Jul 25Aug 8Aug 22
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 96% good or excellent, week ending Aug 22. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach green tip, 20210%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 4: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 11: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 18: 81% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 25: 92% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending May 2: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25May 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 95% as of May 2.

Field progress

Pink, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach pink, 20210%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 11: 21% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 51%)Pink, week ending Apr 18: 59% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 82%)Pink, week ending Apr 25: 78% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 87%)Pink, week ending May 2: 88% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 92%)Pink, week ending May 9: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 96%)Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 96% as of May 9 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Full bloom, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach full bloom, 20210%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 18: 24% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 24%)Full bloom, week ending Apr 25: 57% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 67%)Full bloom, week ending May 2: 77% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 82%)Full bloom, week ending May 9: 89% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 89%)Full bloom, week ending May 16: 92% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 92%)Full bloom, week ending May 23: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of May 23.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 11: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 14% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 25% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 33% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 35%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 43% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 46%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 53% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 60% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 64% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 80%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 75% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 99% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 99%)Jul 4Jul 18Aug 1Aug 15Aug 29Sep 12Sep 26
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 100% as of Oct 3.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania peach crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030thousand tons2015: no forecast · final 18.2 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 16.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 21.4 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 18.6 thousand tons · final 17.9 thousand tons (-4.0%)−4.0%20182019: Aug forecast 16.5 thousand tons · final 19.8 thousand tons (+19.7%)+19.7%20192020: Aug forecast 15.0 thousand tons · final 14.1 thousand tons (-6.3%)−6.3%20202021: Aug forecast 21.0 thousand tons · final 20.9 thousand tons (-0.5%)−0.5%20212022: Aug forecast 12.0 thousand tons · final 18.6 thousand tons (+55.0%)+55.0%20222023: Aug forecast 18.5 thousand tons · final 18.5 thousand tons (+0.0%)+0.0%20232024: Aug forecast 16.0 thousand tons · final 14.8 thousand tons (-7.5%)−7.5%20242025: Aug forecast 15.5 thousand tons · final 20.5 thousand tons (+32.3%)+32.3%20252026: Aug forecast 3.7 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20263.7 Augustpending———
202515.5 August20.5+32.3%$37M2.9%
202416.0 August14.8−7.5%$24M2.1%
202318.5 August18.50.0%$29M3.1%
202212.0 August18.6+55.0%$24M2.9%
202121.0 August20.9−0.5%$28M3.0%
202015.0 August14.1−6.3%$21M2.1%
201916.5 August19.8+19.7%$24M2.9%
201818.6 August17.9−4.0%$21M2.7%
2017—21.4—$25M3.1%
2016—16.0—$19M2.0%
2015—18.2—$21M2.2%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania peach crop: fresh market vs processing0102030thousand tons2014: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20142015: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20152016: fresh 15.0, processing 0.9, not sold 0.2 thousand tons — 93% fresh20162017: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.4 thousand tons — 0% fresh20172018: fresh 14.3, processing 3.1, not sold 0.4 thousand tons — 80% fresh20182019: fresh 16.8, processing 2.3, not sold 0.7 thousand tons — 85% fresh20192020: fresh 10.3, processing 3.7, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 73% fresh20202021: fresh 16.0, processing 4.5, not sold 0.5 thousand tons — 76% fresh20212022: fresh 15.2, processing 3.2, not sold 0.3 thousand tons — 82% fresh20222023: fresh 16.1, processing 1.9, not sold 0.5 thousand tons — 87% fresh20232024: fresh 12.5, processing 2.0, not sold 0.3 thousand tons — 85% fresh20242025: fresh 19.0, processing 1.3, not sold 0.2 thousand tons — 93% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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