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Pennsylvania · crop watch

Pennsylvania peach crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Pennsylvania peach crop for the week ending Aug 20, when 73% was good or excellent, versus 95% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 86%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2023 crop at 18.5 thousand tons, down 0.5% from last year's final of 18.6.

Last rated week ending Aug 20, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

73%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Aug 20.

▲

95%

Harvested

+9 points against the five-year pace of 86%.

▼

3.7

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−82.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Jul 26 — 9 weeks ago

Pennsylvania peach condition ran far below normal

USDA rated Pennsylvania's peach crop for the week ending July 26, the most recent reading published, at 20% good to excellent, up 6 points from the prior week but well under the 56% five-year average and last year's 70% for the same week. Forty-three percent of the crop was rated very poor. Harvest reached 95% by the week ending August 16, ahead of last year's 79% pace. USDA's August forecast put production at 3.7 thousand tons, down 82% from last year's 20.5 thousand-ton final. Pennsylvania peach forecasts have typically finished 15.9% above the first estimate of the season, so the final tally has room to move up from this figure.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±19.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Pennsylvania peach crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 90%, Poor 10%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 70%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 90%, Poor 10%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 75%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 90%, Poor 10%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 80%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 90%, Poor 10%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 90%, Poor 10%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 80%, Poor 20%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 80%, Poor 20%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 88%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 90%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 4%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 69%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 30Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecastJun 25Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 73% good or excellent, week ending Aug 20. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach green tip, 20230%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 2: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 9: 39% (5-yr avg —, last year 29%)Green tip, week ending Apr 16: 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 49%)Green tip, week ending Apr 23: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 59%)Green tip, week ending Apr 30: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 69%)Green tip, week ending May 7: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 87%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 95% as of May 7.

Field progress

Pink, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach pink, 20230%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 2: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 9: 7% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 16: 31% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 23: 53% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 7%)Pink, week ending Apr 30: 63% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 18%)Pink, week ending May 7: 75% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 46%)Pink, week ending May 14: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 59%)Pink, week ending May 21: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of May 21.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach full bloom, 20230%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 23: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending Apr 30: 8% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 16%)Full bloom, week ending May 7: 18% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 34%)Full bloom, week ending May 14: 25% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 44%)Full bloom, week ending May 21: 30% (5-yr avg —, last year 54%)Full bloom, week ending May 28: 61% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 4: 76% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 11: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 18: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 23May 7May 21Jun 4Jun 18
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jun 18.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Pennsylvania peach harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 9: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 24% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 48% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 60% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 78% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 52%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 83% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 68%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 95% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 83%)Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20Sep 3Sep 17
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Sep 17 (5-yr avg 86%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Pennsylvania peach crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030thousand tons2015: no forecast · final 18.2 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 16.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 21.4 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 18.6 thousand tons · final 17.9 thousand tons (-4.0%)−4.0%20182019: Aug forecast 16.5 thousand tons · final 19.8 thousand tons (+19.7%)+19.7%20192020: Aug forecast 15.0 thousand tons · final 14.1 thousand tons (-6.3%)−6.3%20202021: Aug forecast 21.0 thousand tons · final 20.9 thousand tons (-0.5%)−0.5%20212022: Aug forecast 12.0 thousand tons · final 18.6 thousand tons (+55.0%)+55.0%20222023: Aug forecast 18.5 thousand tons · final 18.5 thousand tons (+0.0%)+0.0%20232024: Aug forecast 16.0 thousand tons · final 14.8 thousand tons (-7.5%)−7.5%20242025: Aug forecast 15.5 thousand tons · final 20.5 thousand tons (+32.3%)+32.3%20252026: Aug forecast 3.7 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20263.7 Augustpending———
202515.5 August20.5+32.3%$37M2.9%
202416.0 August14.8−7.5%$24M2.1%
202318.5 August18.50.0%$29M3.1%
202212.0 August18.6+55.0%$24M2.9%
202121.0 August20.9−0.5%$28M3.0%
202015.0 August14.1−6.3%$21M2.1%
201916.5 August19.8+19.7%$24M2.9%
201818.6 August17.9−4.0%$21M2.7%
2017—21.4—$25M3.1%
2016—16.0—$19M2.0%
2015—18.2—$21M2.2%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Pennsylvania peach crop: fresh market vs processing0102030thousand tons2014: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20142015: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 0% fresh20152016: fresh 15.0, processing 0.9, not sold 0.2 thousand tons — 93% fresh20162017: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.4 thousand tons — 0% fresh20172018: fresh 14.3, processing 3.1, not sold 0.4 thousand tons — 80% fresh20182019: fresh 16.8, processing 2.3, not sold 0.7 thousand tons — 85% fresh20192020: fresh 10.3, processing 3.7, not sold 0.1 thousand tons — 73% fresh20202021: fresh 16.0, processing 4.5, not sold 0.5 thousand tons — 76% fresh20212022: fresh 15.2, processing 3.2, not sold 0.3 thousand tons — 82% fresh20222023: fresh 16.1, processing 1.9, not sold 0.5 thousand tons — 87% fresh20232024: fresh 12.5, processing 2.0, not sold 0.3 thousand tons — 85% fresh20242025: fresh 19.0, processing 1.3, not sold 0.2 thousand tons — 93% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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