ProduceWire ProduceWire

New York · crop watch

New York grape crop

USDA last rated the 2022 New York grape crop for the week ending Jun 5, when 85% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 170.0 thousand tons, down 13.0% from last year's final of 195.5.

Last rated week ending Jun 5, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

85%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Jun 5.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Nov 6.

▼

170

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−13.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York grape condition drops sharply

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York rated 39% of its grape crop good to excellent, down 30 points from the prior week and far below the 89% mark reported at the same point last year. Harvest was 30% complete, slightly ahead of last year's 26%. USDA's August forecast put the crop at 170,000 tons, down 13% from last year's final 195.5,000 tons. Early-season forecasts for the crop have typically finished 15.6% below the first estimate, so further downward revision would not be unusual. The next USDA report will show whether the decline in condition carried into final production numbers.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±15.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

20262025202420232022
New York grape crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 15%, Good 64%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg —, last year —)USDA forecast — week ending Jun 5USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Jun 5Harvest beginsJun 5
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 85% good or excellent, week ending Jun 5. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York grape harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 17% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 29% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 34% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 55% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 76% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 79% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 87% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Nov 6: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Sep 11Sep 25Oct 9Oct 23Nov 6
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Nov 6.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York grape crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300thousand tons2010: no forecast · final 176.0 thousand tons20102011: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20112012: no forecast · final 115.0 thousand tons20122013: no forecast · final 206.0 thousand tons20132014: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20142015: no forecast · final 145.0 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 171.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 187.0 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 175.0 thousand tons · final pending20182024: Aug forecast 165.0 thousand tons · final 132.0 thousand tons (-20.0%)−20.0%20242025: Aug forecast 220.0 thousand tons · final 195.5 thousand tons (-11.1%)−11.1%20252026: Aug forecast 170.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026170.0 Augustpending———
2025220.0 August195.5−11.1%$85M3.7%
2024165.0 August132.0−20.0%$61M2.4%
2018175.0 Augustpending———
2017—187.0—$69M2.5%
2016—171.0—$64M2.2%
2015—145.0—$57M1.9%
2014—188.0—$69M2.4%
2013—206.0—$75M2.4%
2012—115.0—$52M1.5%
2011—188.0—$70M2.5%
2010—176.0—$68M2.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York grape crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300thousand tons2010: fresh 4.0, processing 172.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20102011: fresh 5.0, processing 183.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20112012: fresh 3.0, processing 109.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20122013: fresh 3.0, processing 199.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20132014: fresh 3.0, processing 177.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20142015: fresh 2.0, processing 143.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20152016: fresh 2.0, processing 169.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20162017: fresh 2.0, processing 185.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20172024: fresh 0.4, processing 130.8, not sold 0.8 thousand tons — 0% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 3.9 thousand tons — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →