New York · crop watch
New York grape crop
USDA last rated the 2023 New York grape crop for the week ending Jun 25, when 48% was good or excellent. USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 170.0 thousand tons, down 13.0% from last year's final of 195.5.
Good to excellent · last reading
Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Jun 25.
170
thousand tons, 2026 forecast
−13.0% against last year's final crop.
196
thousand tons, 2025 final
−11.1% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Week ending Sep 27
New York grape condition drops sharply
For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York rated 39% of its grape crop good to excellent, down 30 points from the prior week and far below the 89% mark reported at the same point last year. Harvest was 30% complete, slightly ahead of last year's 26%. USDA's August forecast put the crop at 170,000 tons, down 13% from last year's final 195.5,000 tons. Early-season forecasts for the crop have typically finished 15.6% below the first estimate, so further downward revision would not be unusual. The next USDA report will show whether the decline in condition carried into final production numbers.
Forecast reliability
±15.6%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.
Weekly ratings
Crop condition, 2023
Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.
Latest: 48% good or excellent, week ending Jun 25. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (thousand tons) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 170.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 220.0 August | 195.5 | −11.1% | $85M | 3.7% |
| 2024 | 165.0 August | 132.0 | −20.0% | $61M | 2.4% |
| 2018 | 175.0 August | pending | — | — | — |
| 2017 | — | 187.0 | — | $69M | 2.5% |
| 2016 | — | 171.0 | — | $64M | 2.2% |
| 2015 | — | 145.0 | — | $57M | 1.9% |
| 2014 | — | 188.0 | — | $69M | 2.4% |
| 2013 | — | 206.0 | — | $75M | 2.4% |
| 2012 | — | 115.0 | — | $52M | 1.5% |
| 2011 | — | 188.0 | — | $70M | 2.5% |
| 2010 | — | 176.0 | — | $68M | 2.4% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.
Utilization
Where the crop went
Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.