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New York · crop watch

New York grape crop

As of the week ending Sep 27, 39% of the 2026 New York grape crop is rated good or excellent, versus 89% at this point last year. Harvest is 30% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 170.0 thousand tons, down 13.0% from last year's final of 195.5.

Week ending Sep 27, 2026

Good to excellent

39%of the crop

Share of the 2026 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 27.

–

30%

Harvested

As of Sep 27.

▼

170

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−13.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York grape condition drops sharply

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York rated 39% of its grape crop good to excellent, down 30 points from the prior week and far below the 89% mark reported at the same point last year. Harvest was 30% complete, slightly ahead of last year's 26%. USDA's August forecast put the crop at 170,000 tons, down 13% from last year's final 195.5,000 tons. Early-season forecasts for the crop have typically finished 15.6% below the first estimate, so further downward revision would not be unusual. The next USDA report will show whether the decline in condition carried into final production numbers.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±15.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2026

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

20262025202420232022
New York grape crop condition, 20260%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 25%, Good 61%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 25%, Good 61%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 58%, Good 30%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 36% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 47%, Good 37%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 1%, Poor 10%, Fair 51%, Good 32%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 38% (5-yr avg —, last year 67%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 65%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 67%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 65%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 67%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 47%, Good 37%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year 83%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 65%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 25%, Good 63%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 25%, Good 63%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 47%, Good 37%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 47%, Good 37%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 65%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 65%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 25%, Good 63%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 1%, Poor 10%, Fair 50%, Good 33%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 39% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)−31 pts — week ending Jun 21−31 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 16USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Sep 13Harvest beginsJun 7Jun 28Jul 19Aug 9Aug 30Sep 20
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 39% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York grape harvested, 20260%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 8% (5-yr avg —, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 21% (5-yr avg —, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 30% (5-yr avg —, last year 26%)Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 30% as of Sep 27.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York grape crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300thousand tons2010: no forecast · final 176.0 thousand tons20102011: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20112012: no forecast · final 115.0 thousand tons20122013: no forecast · final 206.0 thousand tons20132014: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20142015: no forecast · final 145.0 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 171.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 187.0 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 175.0 thousand tons · final pending20182024: Aug forecast 165.0 thousand tons · final 132.0 thousand tons (-20.0%)−20.0%20242025: Aug forecast 220.0 thousand tons · final 195.5 thousand tons (-11.1%)−11.1%20252026: Aug forecast 170.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026170.0 Augustpending———
2025220.0 August195.5−11.1%$85M3.7%
2024165.0 August132.0−20.0%$61M2.4%
2018175.0 Augustpending———
2017—187.0—$69M2.5%
2016—171.0—$64M2.2%
2015—145.0—$57M1.9%
2014—188.0—$69M2.4%
2013—206.0—$75M2.4%
2012—115.0—$52M1.5%
2011—188.0—$70M2.5%
2010—176.0—$68M2.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York grape crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300thousand tons2010: fresh 4.0, processing 172.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20102011: fresh 5.0, processing 183.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20112012: fresh 3.0, processing 109.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20122013: fresh 3.0, processing 199.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20132014: fresh 3.0, processing 177.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20142015: fresh 2.0, processing 143.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20152016: fresh 2.0, processing 169.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20162017: fresh 2.0, processing 185.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20172024: fresh 0.4, processing 130.8, not sold 0.8 thousand tons — 0% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 3.9 thousand tons — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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