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New York · crop watch

New York grape crop

USDA last rated the 2025 New York grape crop for the week ending Nov 16, when 74% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 100% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2025 crop at 220.0 thousand tons, up 66.7% from last year's final of 132.0.

Last rated week ending Nov 16, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

74%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Nov 16.

–

100%

Harvested

As of Nov 23.

▼

170

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−13.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York grape condition drops sharply

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York rated 39% of its grape crop good to excellent, down 30 points from the prior week and far below the 89% mark reported at the same point last year. Harvest was 30% complete, slightly ahead of last year's 26%. USDA's August forecast put the crop at 170,000 tons, down 13% from last year's final 195.5,000 tons. Early-season forecasts for the crop have typically finished 15.6% below the first estimate, so further downward revision would not be unusual. The next USDA report will show whether the decline in condition carried into final production numbers.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±15.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

20262025202420232022
New York grape crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 32%, Good 3%, Excellent 65% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 32%, Good 6%, Excellent 62% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 32%, Good 3%, Excellent 65% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 32%, Good 4%, Excellent 64% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 42%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 33%, Good 7%, Excellent 60% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year 49%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 32%, Good 3%, Excellent 64% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 1%, Poor 0%, Fair 32%, Good 3%, Excellent 64% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year 43%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 17%, Good 22%, Excellent 61% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg —, last year 44%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 33%, Excellent 60% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 11%, Good 64%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year 27%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 47%, Excellent 44% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 27%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 8%, Good 33%, Excellent 59% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg —, last year 44%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 29%, Excellent 64% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 44%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 32%, Excellent 61% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 43%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 33%, Excellent 60% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 58%)Week ending Sep 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 11%, Good 64%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year 51%)Week ending Sep 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 11%, Good 63%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year 54%)Week ending Nov 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 26%, Good 69%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year —)USDA forecast — week ending Aug 17USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Sep 14Harvest begins−15 pts — week ending Nov 16−15 ptsJun 8Jun 29Jul 20Aug 10Aug 31Sep 21
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 74% good or excellent, week ending Nov 16. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York grape harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 23% (5-yr avg —, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 27% (5-yr avg —, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Nov 16: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Nov 23: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Sep 7Sep 14Sep 21Sep 28Nov 16Nov 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 100% as of Nov 23.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York grape crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300thousand tons2010: no forecast · final 176.0 thousand tons20102011: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20112012: no forecast · final 115.0 thousand tons20122013: no forecast · final 206.0 thousand tons20132014: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20142015: no forecast · final 145.0 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 171.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 187.0 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 175.0 thousand tons · final pending20182024: Aug forecast 165.0 thousand tons · final 132.0 thousand tons (-20.0%)−20.0%20242025: Aug forecast 220.0 thousand tons · final 195.5 thousand tons (-11.1%)−11.1%20252026: Aug forecast 170.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026170.0 Augustpending———
2025220.0 August195.5−11.1%$85M3.7%
2024165.0 August132.0−20.0%$61M2.4%
2018175.0 Augustpending———
2017—187.0—$69M2.5%
2016—171.0—$64M2.2%
2015—145.0—$57M1.9%
2014—188.0—$69M2.4%
2013—206.0—$75M2.4%
2012—115.0—$52M1.5%
2011—188.0—$70M2.5%
2010—176.0—$68M2.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York grape crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300thousand tons2010: fresh 4.0, processing 172.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20102011: fresh 5.0, processing 183.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20112012: fresh 3.0, processing 109.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20122013: fresh 3.0, processing 199.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20132014: fresh 3.0, processing 177.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20142015: fresh 2.0, processing 143.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20152016: fresh 2.0, processing 169.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20162017: fresh 2.0, processing 185.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20172024: fresh 0.4, processing 130.8, not sold 0.8 thousand tons — 0% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 3.9 thousand tons — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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