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New York · crop watch

New York grape crop

USDA last rated the 2024 New York grape crop for the week ending Oct 20, when 26% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 99% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2024 crop at 165.0 thousand tons.

Last rated week ending Oct 20, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

26%of the crop

Share of the 2024 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 20.

–

99%

Harvested

As of Nov 10.

▼

170

thousand tons, 2026 forecast

−13.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York grape condition drops sharply

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York rated 39% of its grape crop good to excellent, down 30 points from the prior week and far below the 89% mark reported at the same point last year. Harvest was 30% complete, slightly ahead of last year's 26%. USDA's August forecast put the crop at 170,000 tons, down 13% from last year's final 195.5,000 tons. Early-season forecasts for the crop have typically finished 15.6% below the first estimate, so further downward revision would not be unusual. The next USDA report will show whether the decline in condition carried into final production numbers.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±15.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 2 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

20262025202420232022
New York grape crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 34%, Good 46%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg —, last year 50%)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 34%, Good 46%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg —, last year 51%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 34%, Good 46%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg —, last year 48%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 58%, Good 35%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 42% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 51%, Good 35%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 11%, Good 43%, Excellent 43% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 1%, Poor 6%, Fair 50%, Good 30%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 1%, Poor 47%, Fair 8%, Good 25%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 27%, Good 50%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 66%, Fair 7%, Good 17%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 27% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 66%, Fair 7%, Good 17%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 27% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 6%, Poor 30%, Fair 20%, Good 29%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 5%, Poor 31%, Fair 20%, Good 29%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 6%, Poor 31%, Fair 20%, Good 28%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 15: Very poor 6%, Poor 24%, Fair 12%, Good 41%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 22: Very poor 6%, Poor 32%, Fair 11%, Good 36%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 29: Very poor 7%, Poor 26%, Fair 13%, Good 43%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Oct 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 22%, Fair 9%, Good 46%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Oct 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 22%, Fair 9%, Good 37%, Excellent 32% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Oct 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 70%, Fair 4%, Good 13%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 26% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−46 pts — week ending Aug 11−46 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 18USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Sep 8Harvest beginsJun 9Jun 30Jul 21Aug 11Sep 1Sep 22Oct 13
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 26% good or excellent, week ending Oct 20. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York grape harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 20% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 25% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 38% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 43% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 56% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Oct 27: 75% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Nov 3: 92% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Nov 10: 99% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Sep 8Sep 22Oct 6Oct 20Nov 3
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 99% as of Nov 10.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York grape crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300thousand tons2010: no forecast · final 176.0 thousand tons20102011: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20112012: no forecast · final 115.0 thousand tons20122013: no forecast · final 206.0 thousand tons20132014: no forecast · final 188.0 thousand tons20142015: no forecast · final 145.0 thousand tons20152016: no forecast · final 171.0 thousand tons20162017: no forecast · final 187.0 thousand tons20172018: Aug forecast 175.0 thousand tons · final pending20182024: Aug forecast 165.0 thousand tons · final 132.0 thousand tons (-20.0%)−20.0%20242025: Aug forecast 220.0 thousand tons · final 195.5 thousand tons (-11.1%)−11.1%20252026: Aug forecast 170.0 thousand tons · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (thousand tons)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2026170.0 Augustpending———
2025220.0 August195.5−11.1%$85M3.7%
2024165.0 August132.0−20.0%$61M2.4%
2018175.0 Augustpending———
2017—187.0—$69M2.5%
2016—171.0—$64M2.2%
2015—145.0—$57M1.9%
2014—188.0—$69M2.4%
2013—206.0—$75M2.4%
2012—115.0—$52M1.5%
2011—188.0—$70M2.5%
2010—176.0—$68M2.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York grape crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300thousand tons2010: fresh 4.0, processing 172.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20102011: fresh 5.0, processing 183.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20112012: fresh 3.0, processing 109.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 3% fresh20122013: fresh 3.0, processing 199.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20132014: fresh 3.0, processing 177.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 2% fresh20142015: fresh 2.0, processing 143.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20152016: fresh 2.0, processing 169.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20162017: fresh 2.0, processing 185.0, not sold 0.0 thousand tons — 1% fresh20172024: fresh 0.4, processing 130.8, not sold 0.8 thousand tons — 0% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 3.9 thousand tons — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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