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Virginia · crop watch

Virginia apple crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Virginia apple crop for the week ending Sep 6, when 69% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 98% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2020 crop at 160.0 million lb, down 15.8% from last year's final of 190.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 6, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

69%of the crop

Share of the 2020 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 6.

–

98%

Harvested

As of Nov 8.

▼

77.0

million lb, 2026 forecast

−48.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 6 — 3 weeks ago

Virginia apple forecast falls sharply for 2026

For the week ending September 6, 2026, Virginia rated 20% of its apple crop good to excellent, up 5 points from the prior week but well below the 32% mark from the same week last year. Fifty-seven percent of the crop was rated very poor, and none was rated excellent. Harvest reached 35% complete by September 13, trailing the five-year average of 42% and running slightly behind last year's 37%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 77 million pounds, down 48.3% from last year's final 149 million and well under the 230 million produced two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished 6.2% above their first estimate, a pattern that would still leave this year's crop far smaller than recent seasons.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±10.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Virginia apple crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending Apr 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 21%, Good 79%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 10%, Good 88%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year 80%)Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 11%, Good 81%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 8%, Good 85%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 1%, Poor 11%, Fair 19%, Good 69%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 87%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 14%, Fair 17%, Good 69%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 2Harvest begins−22 pts — week ending Aug 2−22 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 6USDA forecastApr 5May 3Jun 7Jul 5Aug 2Sep 6
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 69% good or excellent, week ending Sep 6. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Virginia apple harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 5: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 12: 3% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 8% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 11% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 16% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 21% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 25% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 29% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 35% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 43%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 42% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 49% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 56% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 61%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 62% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 68% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 75% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 83% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 85%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Nov 1: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Nov 8: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Jul 5Jul 26Aug 16Sep 6Sep 27Oct 18Nov 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Nov 8.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Virginia apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300million lb2015: no forecast · final 195.2 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 180.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 225.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 204.0 million lb (-7.3%)−7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 190.0 million lb (+2.7%)+2.7%20192020: Aug forecast 160.0 million lb · final 176.0 million lb (+10.0%)+10.0%20202021: Aug forecast 180.0 million lb · final 195.0 million lb (+8.3%)+8.3%20212022: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 221.0 million lb (+19.5%)+19.5%20222023: Aug forecast 195.0 million lb · final 211.0 million lb (+8.2%)+8.2%20232024: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 230.0 million lb (+4.5%)+4.5%20242025: Aug forecast 165.0 million lb · final 149.0 million lb (-9.7%)−9.7%20252026: Aug forecast 77.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202677.0 Augustpending———
2025165.0 August149.0−9.7%$45M1.3%
2024220.0 August230.0+4.5%$65M2.1%
2023195.0 August211.0+8.2%$53M1.8%
2022185.0 August221.0+19.5%$66M2.2%
2021180.0 August195.0+8.3%$47M1.9%
2020160.0 August176.0+10.0%$39M1.7%
2019185.0 August190.0+2.7%$35M1.7%
2018220.0 August204.0−7.3%$37M2.0%
2017—225.0—$49M1.9%
2016—180.0—$36M1.6%
2015—195.2—$34M1.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Virginia apple crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300million lb2014: fresh 75.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 37% fresh20142015: fresh 65.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 33% fresh20152016: fresh 73.0, processing 105.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 41% fresh20162017: fresh 91.0, processing 133.0, not sold 1.0 million lb — 40% fresh20172018: fresh 83.6, processing 118.3, not sold 2.1 million lb — 41% fresh20182019: fresh 89.3, processing 98.8, not sold 1.9 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 84.5, processing 89.8, not sold 1.7 million lb — 48% fresh20202021: fresh 58.5, processing 134.6, not sold 1.9 million lb — 30% fresh20212022: fresh 103.9, processing 114.9, not sold 2.2 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 111.0, processing 99.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 53% fresh20232024: fresh 128.8, processing 100.5, not sold 0.7 million lb — 56% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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