ProduceWire ProduceWire

Virginia · crop watch

Virginia apple crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Virginia apple crop for the week ending Sep 4, when 49% was good or excellent, versus 62% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2022 crop at 185.0 million lb, down 5.1% from last year's final of 195.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 4, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

49%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 4.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Oct 30.

▼

77.0

million lb, 2026 forecast

−48.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 6 — 3 weeks ago

Virginia apple forecast falls sharply for 2026

For the week ending September 6, 2026, Virginia rated 20% of its apple crop good to excellent, up 5 points from the prior week but well below the 32% mark from the same week last year. Fifty-seven percent of the crop was rated very poor, and none was rated excellent. Harvest reached 35% complete by September 13, trailing the five-year average of 42% and running slightly behind last year's 37%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 77 million pounds, down 48.3% from last year's final 149 million and well under the 230 million produced two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished 6.2% above their first estimate, a pattern that would still leave this year's crop far smaller than recent seasons.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±10.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Virginia apple crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Apr 3: Very poor 16%, Poor 6%, Fair 68%, Good 9%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 86%)Week ending May 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 19%, Good 75%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 13%, Fair 27%, Good 58%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 62%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 42%, Good 47%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg —, last year 59%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 24%, Good 66%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 12%, Fair 24%, Good 63%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 41%, Good 48%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg —, last year 62%)−17 pts — week ending Jun 5−17 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 7Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 14USDA forecastApr 3May 1Jun 5Jul 3Aug 7Aug 14Sep 4
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 49% good or excellent, week ending Sep 4. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Virginia apple harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 10: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 17: 5% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Jul 24: 10% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Jul 31: 16% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Aug 7: 21% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 26% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 30% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 35% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 40% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 35%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 45% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 50% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 60% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 57%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 66% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 71% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 78% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 82%)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 84% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Jul 10Jul 31Aug 21Sep 11Oct 2Oct 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 30.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Virginia apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300million lb2015: no forecast · final 195.2 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 180.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 225.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 204.0 million lb (-7.3%)−7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 190.0 million lb (+2.7%)+2.7%20192020: Aug forecast 160.0 million lb · final 176.0 million lb (+10.0%)+10.0%20202021: Aug forecast 180.0 million lb · final 195.0 million lb (+8.3%)+8.3%20212022: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 221.0 million lb (+19.5%)+19.5%20222023: Aug forecast 195.0 million lb · final 211.0 million lb (+8.2%)+8.2%20232024: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 230.0 million lb (+4.5%)+4.5%20242025: Aug forecast 165.0 million lb · final 149.0 million lb (-9.7%)−9.7%20252026: Aug forecast 77.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202677.0 Augustpending———
2025165.0 August149.0−9.7%$45M1.3%
2024220.0 August230.0+4.5%$65M2.1%
2023195.0 August211.0+8.2%$53M1.8%
2022185.0 August221.0+19.5%$66M2.2%
2021180.0 August195.0+8.3%$47M1.9%
2020160.0 August176.0+10.0%$39M1.7%
2019185.0 August190.0+2.7%$35M1.7%
2018220.0 August204.0−7.3%$37M2.0%
2017—225.0—$49M1.9%
2016—180.0—$36M1.6%
2015—195.2—$34M1.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Virginia apple crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300million lb2014: fresh 75.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 37% fresh20142015: fresh 65.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 33% fresh20152016: fresh 73.0, processing 105.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 41% fresh20162017: fresh 91.0, processing 133.0, not sold 1.0 million lb — 40% fresh20172018: fresh 83.6, processing 118.3, not sold 2.1 million lb — 41% fresh20182019: fresh 89.3, processing 98.8, not sold 1.9 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 84.5, processing 89.8, not sold 1.7 million lb — 48% fresh20202021: fresh 58.5, processing 134.6, not sold 1.9 million lb — 30% fresh20212022: fresh 103.9, processing 114.9, not sold 2.2 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 111.0, processing 99.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 53% fresh20232024: fresh 128.8, processing 100.5, not sold 0.7 million lb — 56% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →