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Virginia · crop watch

Virginia apple crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Virginia apple crop for the week ending Sep 3, when 40% was good or excellent, versus 49% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2023 crop at 195.0 million lb, down 11.8% from last year's final of 221.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 3, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

40%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 3.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Nov 5.

▼

77.0

million lb, 2026 forecast

−48.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 6 — 3 weeks ago

Virginia apple forecast falls sharply for 2026

For the week ending September 6, 2026, Virginia rated 20% of its apple crop good to excellent, up 5 points from the prior week but well below the 32% mark from the same week last year. Fifty-seven percent of the crop was rated very poor, and none was rated excellent. Harvest reached 35% complete by September 13, trailing the five-year average of 42% and running slightly behind last year's 37%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 77 million pounds, down 48.3% from last year's final 149 million and well under the 230 million produced two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished 6.2% above their first estimate, a pattern that would still leave this year's crop far smaller than recent seasons.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±10.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Virginia apple crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Apr 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 16%, Good 79%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year 10%)Week ending Apr 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 24%, Good 71%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 77%)Week ending Jun 4: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 23%, Good 69%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year 60%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 13%, Poor 13%, Fair 15%, Good 59%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg —, last year 48%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 1%, Poor 18%, Fair 29%, Good 51%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 52% (5-yr avg —, last year 64%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 13%, Poor 21%, Fair 26%, Good 38%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 40% (5-yr avg —, last year 49%)−13 pts — week ending Jul 2−13 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Aug 13Harvest beginsApr 2Apr 30Jun 4Jul 2Aug 13Sep 3
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 40% good or excellent, week ending Sep 3. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Virginia apple harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 9: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 16: 4% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 7% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 12% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 15% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 20% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 25%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 25% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 29% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 34% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 39%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 40% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 45% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 52% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 60% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 67% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 70%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 74% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 84% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 83%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Nov 5: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 9Jul 30Aug 20Sep 10Oct 1Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Nov 5.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Virginia apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300million lb2015: no forecast · final 195.2 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 180.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 225.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 204.0 million lb (-7.3%)−7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 190.0 million lb (+2.7%)+2.7%20192020: Aug forecast 160.0 million lb · final 176.0 million lb (+10.0%)+10.0%20202021: Aug forecast 180.0 million lb · final 195.0 million lb (+8.3%)+8.3%20212022: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 221.0 million lb (+19.5%)+19.5%20222023: Aug forecast 195.0 million lb · final 211.0 million lb (+8.2%)+8.2%20232024: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 230.0 million lb (+4.5%)+4.5%20242025: Aug forecast 165.0 million lb · final 149.0 million lb (-9.7%)−9.7%20252026: Aug forecast 77.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202677.0 Augustpending———
2025165.0 August149.0−9.7%$45M1.3%
2024220.0 August230.0+4.5%$65M2.1%
2023195.0 August211.0+8.2%$53M1.8%
2022185.0 August221.0+19.5%$66M2.2%
2021180.0 August195.0+8.3%$47M1.9%
2020160.0 August176.0+10.0%$39M1.7%
2019185.0 August190.0+2.7%$35M1.7%
2018220.0 August204.0−7.3%$37M2.0%
2017—225.0—$49M1.9%
2016—180.0—$36M1.6%
2015—195.2—$34M1.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Virginia apple crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300million lb2014: fresh 75.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 37% fresh20142015: fresh 65.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 33% fresh20152016: fresh 73.0, processing 105.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 41% fresh20162017: fresh 91.0, processing 133.0, not sold 1.0 million lb — 40% fresh20172018: fresh 83.6, processing 118.3, not sold 2.1 million lb — 41% fresh20182019: fresh 89.3, processing 98.8, not sold 1.9 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 84.5, processing 89.8, not sold 1.7 million lb — 48% fresh20202021: fresh 58.5, processing 134.6, not sold 1.9 million lb — 30% fresh20212022: fresh 103.9, processing 114.9, not sold 2.2 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 111.0, processing 99.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 53% fresh20232024: fresh 128.8, processing 100.5, not sold 0.7 million lb — 56% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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