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Virginia · crop watch

Virginia apple crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Virginia apple crop for the week ending Sep 7, when 32% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 51% complete (five-year average 60%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2025 crop at 165.0 million lb, down 28.3% from last year's final of 230.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 7, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

32%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 7.

▼

51%

Harvested

−9 points against the five-year pace of 60%.

▼

77.0

million lb, 2026 forecast

−48.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 6 — 3 weeks ago

Virginia apple forecast falls sharply for 2026

For the week ending September 6, 2026, Virginia rated 20% of its apple crop good to excellent, up 5 points from the prior week but well below the 32% mark from the same week last year. Fifty-seven percent of the crop was rated very poor, and none was rated excellent. Harvest reached 35% complete by September 13, trailing the five-year average of 42% and running slightly behind last year's 37%. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 77 million pounds, down 48.3% from last year's final 149 million and well under the 230 million produced two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished 6.2% above their first estimate, a pattern that would still leave this year's crop far smaller than recent seasons.

This is the most recent reading USDA has published for this crop and state; it is not a current-week rating.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±10.0%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Virginia apple crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Apr 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 44%, Good 49%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 4: Very poor 11%, Poor 25%, Fair 27%, Good 35%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 37% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 11%, Poor 12%, Fair 12%, Good 59%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 23%, Fair 45%, Good 30%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 31% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 9%, Poor 31%, Fair 28%, Good 32%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 32% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 12%, Poor 40%, Fair 25%, Good 23%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 20%, Fair 47%, Good 31%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 32% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−34 pts — week ending Jul 6−34 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 3Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 7USDA forecastApr 6May 4Jun 8Jul 6Aug 3Aug 10Sep 7
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 32% good or excellent, week ending Sep 7. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Virginia apple harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 13: 3% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 8% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 12% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 14% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 18% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 22% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 19%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 25% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 29% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 34% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 38% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 42%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 44% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 51% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 59%)Jul 6Jul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 51% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 60%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Virginia apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final0100200300million lb2015: no forecast · final 195.2 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 180.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 225.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 204.0 million lb (-7.3%)−7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 190.0 million lb (+2.7%)+2.7%20192020: Aug forecast 160.0 million lb · final 176.0 million lb (+10.0%)+10.0%20202021: Aug forecast 180.0 million lb · final 195.0 million lb (+8.3%)+8.3%20212022: Aug forecast 185.0 million lb · final 221.0 million lb (+19.5%)+19.5%20222023: Aug forecast 195.0 million lb · final 211.0 million lb (+8.2%)+8.2%20232024: Aug forecast 220.0 million lb · final 230.0 million lb (+4.5%)+4.5%20242025: Aug forecast 165.0 million lb · final 149.0 million lb (-9.7%)−9.7%20252026: Aug forecast 77.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202677.0 Augustpending———
2025165.0 August149.0−9.7%$45M1.3%
2024220.0 August230.0+4.5%$65M2.1%
2023195.0 August211.0+8.2%$53M1.8%
2022185.0 August221.0+19.5%$66M2.2%
2021180.0 August195.0+8.3%$47M1.9%
2020160.0 August176.0+10.0%$39M1.7%
2019185.0 August190.0+2.7%$35M1.7%
2018220.0 August204.0−7.3%$37M2.0%
2017—225.0—$49M1.9%
2016—180.0—$36M1.6%
2015—195.2—$34M1.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Virginia apple crop: fresh market vs processing0100200300million lb2014: fresh 75.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 37% fresh20142015: fresh 65.0, processing 130.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 33% fresh20152016: fresh 73.0, processing 105.0, not sold 2.0 million lb — 41% fresh20162017: fresh 91.0, processing 133.0, not sold 1.0 million lb — 40% fresh20172018: fresh 83.6, processing 118.3, not sold 2.1 million lb — 41% fresh20182019: fresh 89.3, processing 98.8, not sold 1.9 million lb — 47% fresh20192020: fresh 84.5, processing 89.8, not sold 1.7 million lb — 48% fresh20202021: fresh 58.5, processing 134.6, not sold 1.9 million lb — 30% fresh20212022: fresh 103.9, processing 114.9, not sold 2.2 million lb — 47% fresh20222023: fresh 111.0, processing 99.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 53% fresh20232024: fresh 128.8, processing 100.5, not sold 0.7 million lb — 56% fresh20242025: fresh 0.0, processing 0.0, not sold 0.2 million lb — 0% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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