California · crop watch
California potato crop
USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 8.6 million cwt, down 4.3% from last year's final of 8.9.
2025 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for California potato; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
8.9
million cwt, 2025 final
+3.8% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, November 2025
California potato forecast down 4% from last year
USDA's November 2025 forecast puts California's potato crop at 8.6 million cwt, down 4.3% from last year's final total of 8.9 million cwt and further below the 9.9 million cwt produced two years ago. Based on past seasons, California's first forecast has typically overstated the final crop by 1.8%, so the finished total has more often come in smaller than the initial number. The next USDA report will show whether this year's estimate holds or moves lower as harvest wraps up.
Forecast reliability
±5.1%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million cwt) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.6 November | 8.9 | +3.8% | $248M | 2.1% |
| 2024 | 9.0 November | 8.9 | −0.5% | $207M | 2.1% |
| 2023 | 9.6 November | 9.9 | +3.2% | $348M | 2.3% |
| 2022 | 9.2 November | 8.5 | −7.6% | $237M | 2.1% |
| 2021 | 12.3 November | 11.0 | −10.5% | $275M | 2.7% |
| 2020 | 13.7 November | 12.9 | −6.1% | $228M | 3.1% |
| 2019 | 17.0 November | 16.8 | −1.1% | $278M | 4.0% |
| 2018 | — | 15.5 | — | $222M | 3.4% |
| 2017 | — | 17.9 | — | $376M | 4.0% |
| 2016 | — | 15.4 | — | $279M | 3.4% |
| 2015 | — | 15.9 | — | $215M | 3.5% |
| 2014 | — | 18.6 | — | $250M | 4.1% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.