Texas · crop watch
Texas potato crop
USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 6.2 million cwt, down 8.6% from last year's final of 6.8.
2025 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Texas potato; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
6.2
million cwt, 2025 final
0.0% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, November 2025
Texas potato forecast falls below last year
USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Texas potato crop at 6.2 million cwt, down 8.6% from last year's final of 6.8 million cwt and also below the 6.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Texas forecasts have historically run light: on average, first estimates have finished 12.7% higher once revised, meaning the final number tends to land above where the season opens. Whether that pattern holds will show up as USDA updates the estimate through the rest of the season.
Forecast reliability
±12.7%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million cwt) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.2 November | 6.2 | 0.0% | $91M | 1.5% |
| 2024 | 6.7 November | 6.8 | +1.8% | $116M | 1.6% |
| 2023 | 4.9 November | 6.7 | +37.3% | $105M | 1.5% |
| 2022 | 7.2 November | 8.5 | +17.6% | $127M | 2.1% |
| 2021 | 6.0 November | 6.4 | +7.0% | $95M | 1.6% |
| 2020 | 4.3 November | 7.1 | +67.3% | $110M | 1.7% |
| 2019 | 7.6 November | 7.1 | −6.7% | $88M | 1.7% |
| 2018 | — | 7.4 | — | $94M | 1.7% |
| 2017 | — | 8.9 | — | $135M | 2.0% |
| 2016 | — | 8.3 | — | $142M | 1.8% |
| 2015 | — | 7.3 | — | $115M | 1.6% |
| 2014 | — | 7.8 | — | $132M | 1.7% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.