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Idaho · crop watch

Idaho potato crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Idaho potato crop for the week ending Sep 28, when 78% was good or excellent, versus 84% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 44% complete (five-year average 41%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final of 135.2.

Last rated week ending Sep 28, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

78%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 28.

▲

44%

Harvested

+3 points against the five-year pace of 41%.

▲

138

million cwt, 2025 forecast

+2.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Idaho potato crop set to top last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Idaho potato crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final total of 135.2 million cwt. The crop remains below the 143.3 million cwt final logged two years ago. Historically, Idaho's first forecast has tended to finish slightly larger than initial estimates, with past revisions averaging 0.2% higher by the final count, so the 138.4 million cwt figure could edge up rather than down as the season closes. Buyers weighing storage and contract volumes have a modestly larger crop than last year to work with, though still short of the level seen two seasons back. The next USDA update will show whether that typical upward drift holds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±0.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Idaho potato crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 85%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 85%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 91%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 76%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 89%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 10%, Good 80%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 92%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 9%, Good 79%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 80%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 89%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 80%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 89%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 74%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 84%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 75%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 82%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 17%, Good 66%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 19%, Good 65%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 18%, Good 72%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 82%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 17%, Good 73%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 83%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 17%, Good 70%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 85%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 77%)Week ending Sep 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 79%)Week ending Sep 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 70%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 3Harvest begins−9 pts — week ending Aug 3−9 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 28USDA forecastJun 1Jun 22Jul 13Aug 3Aug 24Sep 14
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 78% good or excellent, week ending Sep 28. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato planted, 20250%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 6: 5% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 5%)Planted, week ending Apr 13: 16% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 9%)Planted, week ending Apr 20: 22% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 21%)Planted, week ending Apr 27: 30% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 30%)Planted, week ending May 4: 66% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 56%)Planted, week ending May 11: 85% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 65%)Planted, week ending May 18: 92% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 76%)Planted, week ending May 25: 96% (5-yr avg —, last year 80%)Apr 6Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of May 25.

Field progress

Emerged, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato emerged, 20250%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 20: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 27: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Emerged, week ending May 4: 5% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 5%)Emerged, week ending May 11: 24% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 9%)Emerged, week ending May 18: 33% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 25%)Emerged, week ending May 25: 46% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 31%)Emerged, week ending Jun 1: 67% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 50%)Emerged, week ending Jun 8: 91% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 74%)Emerged, week ending Jun 15: 95% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 85%)Apr 20May 4May 18Jun 1Jun 15
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 15 (5-yr avg 86%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 3% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 4% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 7% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 9% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 12% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 18% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 27% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 44% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 41%)Jul 27Aug 10Aug 24Sep 7Sep 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 44% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 41%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Idaho potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 132.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 130.4 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 139.3 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 134.9 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 141.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 134.0 million cwt · final 130.9 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20192020: Nov forecast 136.5 million cwt · final 134.8 million cwt (-1.3%)−1.3%20202021: Nov forecast 132.1 million cwt · final 132.1 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20212022: Nov forecast 120.7 million cwt · final 120.7 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Nov forecast 141.9 million cwt · final 143.3 million cwt (+1.0%)+1.0%20232024: Nov forecast 135.2 million cwt · final 135.2 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20242025: Nov forecast 138.4 million cwt · final 140.0 million cwt (+1.1%)+1.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2025138.4 November140.0+1.1%$1,134M33.5%
2024135.2 November135.20.0%$1,220M32.1%
2023141.9 November143.3+1.0%$1,380M32.6%
2022120.7 November120.70.0%$1,509M30.0%
2021132.1 November132.10.0%$1,117M32.0%
2020136.5 November134.8−1.3%$981M32.1%
2019134.0 November130.9−2.3%$1,045M30.9%
2018—141.8—$1,028M31.5%
2017—134.9—$975M29.9%
2016—139.3—$968M30.9%
2015—130.4—$913M29.1%
2014—132.9—$957M29.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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