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Idaho · crop watch

Idaho potato crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Idaho potato crop for the week ending Oct 2, when 83% was good or excellent, versus 58% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's November forecast puts the 2022 crop at 120.7 million cwt, down 8.6% from last year's final of 132.1.

Last rated week ending Oct 2, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

83%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 2.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Oct 30.

▲

138

million cwt, 2025 forecast

+2.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Idaho potato crop set to top last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Idaho potato crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final total of 135.2 million cwt. The crop remains below the 143.3 million cwt final logged two years ago. Historically, Idaho's first forecast has tended to finish slightly larger than initial estimates, with past revisions averaging 0.2% higher by the final count, so the 138.4 million cwt figure could edge up rather than down as the season closes. Buyers weighing storage and contract volumes have a modestly larger crop than last year to work with, though still short of the level seen two seasons back. The next USDA update will show whether that typical upward drift holds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±0.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Idaho potato crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 83%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 96%)Week ending Jun 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 80%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 92%)Week ending Jun 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 78%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 96%)Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 8%, Good 81%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 83%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 88%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 85%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 84%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 76%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 92%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 72%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 94%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 68%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 85%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 77%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 91%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 12%, Good 74%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 90%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 11%, Good 73%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 90%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 10%, Good 70%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 79%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 11%, Good 71%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 76%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 10%, Good 73%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 72%)Week ending Sep 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 10%, Good 74%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 69%)Week ending Sep 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 68%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 70%)Week ending Oct 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 14%, Good 69%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg —, last year 58%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 14Harvest begins−6 pts — week ending Aug 14−6 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Oct 2USDA forecastJun 5Jun 26Jul 17Aug 7Aug 28Sep 18
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 83% good or excellent, week ending Oct 2. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato planted, 20220%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 3: 5% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 5%)Planted, week ending Apr 10: 16% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 13%)Planted, week ending Apr 17: 19% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 30%)Planted, week ending Apr 24: 28% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 42%)Planted, week ending May 1: 40% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 51%)Planted, week ending May 8: 68% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 63%)Planted, week ending May 15: 88% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 82%)Planted, week ending May 22: 95% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 89%)Apr 3Apr 10Apr 17Apr 24May 1May 8May 15May 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 22 (5-yr avg 88%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato emerged, 20220%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 1: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Emerged, week ending May 8: 5% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 13%)Emerged, week ending May 15: 14% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 22%)Emerged, week ending May 22: 20% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 32%)Emerged, week ending May 29: 43% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 55%)Emerged, week ending Jun 5: 47% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 63%)Emerged, week ending Jun 12: 75% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 85%)Emerged, week ending Jun 19: 96% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 96%)May 1May 8May 15May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 96% as of Jun 19 (5-yr avg 90%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 24: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 31: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 2% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 6% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 8% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 10% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 17% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 19%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 28% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 46% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 71% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 80%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 85% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 92%)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 91% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 95%)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 24Aug 7Aug 21Sep 4Sep 18Oct 2Oct 16Oct 30
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 30.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Idaho potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 132.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 130.4 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 139.3 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 134.9 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 141.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 134.0 million cwt · final 130.9 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20192020: Nov forecast 136.5 million cwt · final 134.8 million cwt (-1.3%)−1.3%20202021: Nov forecast 132.1 million cwt · final 132.1 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20212022: Nov forecast 120.7 million cwt · final 120.7 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Nov forecast 141.9 million cwt · final 143.3 million cwt (+1.0%)+1.0%20232024: Nov forecast 135.2 million cwt · final 135.2 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20242025: Nov forecast 138.4 million cwt · final 140.0 million cwt (+1.1%)+1.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2025138.4 November140.0+1.1%$1,134M33.5%
2024135.2 November135.20.0%$1,220M32.1%
2023141.9 November143.3+1.0%$1,380M32.6%
2022120.7 November120.70.0%$1,509M30.0%
2021132.1 November132.10.0%$1,117M32.0%
2020136.5 November134.8−1.3%$981M32.1%
2019134.0 November130.9−2.3%$1,045M30.9%
2018—141.8—$1,028M31.5%
2017—134.9—$975M29.9%
2016—139.3—$968M30.9%
2015—130.4—$913M29.1%
2014—132.9—$957M29.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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