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Idaho · crop watch

Idaho potato crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Idaho potato crop for the week ending Sep 27, when 95% was good or excellent, 8 points above the five-year average of 87%, versus 88% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 99% complete (five-year average 94%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2020 crop at 136.5 million cwt, up 4.3% from last year's final of 130.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 27, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

95%of the crop

8 points above the five-year average for this week, and 88% a year ago.

▲

99%

Harvested

+5 points against the five-year pace of 94%.

▲

138

million cwt, 2025 forecast

+2.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Idaho potato crop set to top last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Idaho potato crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final total of 135.2 million cwt. The crop remains below the 143.3 million cwt final logged two years ago. Historically, Idaho's first forecast has tended to finish slightly larger than initial estimates, with past revisions averaging 0.2% higher by the final count, so the 138.4 million cwt figure could edge up rather than down as the season closes. Buyers weighing storage and contract volumes have a modestly larger crop than last year to work with, though still short of the level seen two seasons back. The next USDA update will show whether that typical upward drift holds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±0.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Idaho potato crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 60%, Excellent 35% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 6%, Good 70%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 78%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg —, last year 86%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 82%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 75%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 1%, Good 72%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 99% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 78%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 69%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 79%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 62%, Excellent 34% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 87%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 64%, Excellent 33% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 65%, Excellent 33% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 59%, Excellent 39% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 82%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 59%, Excellent 39% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 1%, Good 65%, Excellent 34% — good+excellent 99% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 76%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 1%, Good 61%, Excellent 38% — good+excellent 99% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 1%, Good 58%, Excellent 41% — good+excellent 99% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 88%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 65%, Excellent 31% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 55%, Excellent 40% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 90%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 62%, Excellent 33% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 88%)−5 pts — week ending Jun 21−5 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 26Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 27USDA forecastMay 31Jun 21Jul 12Aug 2Aug 23Sep 13
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 95% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato planted, 20200%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 5: 4% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 3%)Planted, week ending Apr 12: 13% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 11%)Planted, week ending Apr 19: 17% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 23%)Planted, week ending Apr 26: 27% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 43%)Planted, week ending May 3: 38% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 58%)Planted, week ending May 10: 61% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 64%)Planted, week ending May 17: 79% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 80%)Planted, week ending May 24: 89% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 87%)Planted, week ending May 31: 98% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 93%)Planted, week ending Jun 7: 99% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 5Apr 19May 3May 17May 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 99% as of Jun 7.

Field progress

Emerged, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato emerged, 20200%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 10: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 10%)Emerged, week ending May 17: 29% (5-yr avg —, last year 21%)Emerged, week ending May 24: 35% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 28%)Emerged, week ending May 31: 53% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 44%)Emerged, week ending Jun 7: 80% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 55%)Emerged, week ending Jun 14: 88% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 70%)Emerged, week ending Jun 21: 96% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 81%)May 10May 17May 24May 31Jun 7Jun 14Jun 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 96% as of Jun 21 (5-yr avg 92%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 1% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 3% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 4% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 5% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 6% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 7% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 11% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 19% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 33% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 53% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 35%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 66% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 85% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 78%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 94% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 99% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 94%)Jul 26Aug 9Aug 23Sep 6Sep 20Oct 4Oct 18
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 99% as of Oct 25 (5-yr avg 94%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Idaho potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 132.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 130.4 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 139.3 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 134.9 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 141.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 134.0 million cwt · final 130.9 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20192020: Nov forecast 136.5 million cwt · final 134.8 million cwt (-1.3%)−1.3%20202021: Nov forecast 132.1 million cwt · final 132.1 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20212022: Nov forecast 120.7 million cwt · final 120.7 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Nov forecast 141.9 million cwt · final 143.3 million cwt (+1.0%)+1.0%20232024: Nov forecast 135.2 million cwt · final 135.2 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20242025: Nov forecast 138.4 million cwt · final 140.0 million cwt (+1.1%)+1.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2025138.4 November140.0+1.1%$1,134M33.5%
2024135.2 November135.20.0%$1,220M32.1%
2023141.9 November143.3+1.0%$1,380M32.6%
2022120.7 November120.70.0%$1,509M30.0%
2021132.1 November132.10.0%$1,117M32.0%
2020136.5 November134.8−1.3%$981M32.1%
2019134.0 November130.9−2.3%$1,045M30.9%
2018—141.8—$1,028M31.5%
2017—134.9—$975M29.9%
2016—139.3—$968M30.9%
2015—130.4—$913M29.1%
2014—132.9—$957M29.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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